Factors predictive of hospital length of stay in patients with an index episode of acute necrotizing pancreatitis.

Introduction: Acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP) complicates 15 % of acute pancreatitis cases and is associated with prolonged length of stay (LOS). There are limited studies exploring potential predictors.

Methods: We carried out a retrospective study of all consecutive patients presenting to a large referral healthcare system with ANP. Patients younger than 18 years of age, without confirmed glandular necrosis and with in-hospital mortality were excluded. Poisson regression was carried out to identify potential predictors of prolonged hospital stay.

Results: One hundred and sixty-two patients hospitalized between December 2016 and June 2020 were included. The median LOS was 12 days (range: 1-155 days). On multivariate analysis, organ dysfunction at presentation (Incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.21, p = 0.01) or during admission (IRR 1.32, p = 0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index scores (IRR 1.1 per CCI point, p < 0.001), known chronic pancreatitis (IRR 1.19, p = 0.03), concurrent (non-pancreas related) infections (IRR 1.13, p = 0.04), need for enteral tube placement (IRR 3.42, p < 0.001) and in-hospital interventions (IRR 1.48-2.85 depending on intervention, p < 0.001) were associated with increased LOS. For patients in the cohort to whom this applied, delayed hospital transfers (IRR 1.02, p < 0.001) and delayed start of enteral feeds (IRR 1.01, p = 0.017) contributed to increased overall LOS.

Conclusion: We demonstrate that multiple factors including delayed transfers to hospitals with pancreaticobiliary expertise lead to increased length of hospitalization. We suggest various strategies that can be considered to target those gaps and may have a favorable effect on LOS.