Identifying changes in flood characteristics and their causes from an event-based perspective in the Central Taihu Basin.

Increasing rainstorms induced by climate change and modification in the land surface due to urbanization have greatly altered floods at different spatio-temporal scales. However, investigating flood events in urbanized plains is challenging as anthropogenic behaviors can change river flow without rainfall. In addition, while the frequency and magnitude of floods have been well examined, knowledge about variations in the rate of flood change is still limited. To fill these gaps, we proposed a scheme that focused on flood responses to rainfall to detect changes in flood characteristics in the Central Taihu Basin, a highly urbanized region in the Yangtze River Delta of China. Four characteristic metrics were adopted to summarize the flood hydrograph, including the peak, increment, rising rate, and falling rate. We then examined trends of these metrics based on the selected rainfall-flood events from ten hydrological stations during 1970-2020. Subsequently, the reduction method was used to separate the impacts of regional climate change and human activities on flood characteristics alterations. Furthermore, the importance of fifteen factors was quantified by the random forest model. We found that there is a significant upward trend in the evolution of flood characteristics, except for the increment of floods. Flood characteristics exhibit higher values when rainfall accumulates, indicating stronger responses of floods to a large amount of rainfall. The results also show that human activities dominate and impact the peak, rising rate, and falling rate of floods more than climate change. Meanwhile, although cumulative precipitation is the most important factor, flood characteristics are also susceptible to anthropogenic factors, such as land use change and hydraulic engineering construction. Our findings, which provide insights into flood event identification and enhance the understanding of regional flood changes, will serve as a reference for water resource management and flood mitigation in urbanized areas.