98%
921
2 minutes
20
We present an artificial neural network architecture, termed STENCIL-NET, for equation-free forecasting of spatiotemporal dynamics from data. STENCIL-NET works by learning a discrete propagator that is able to reproduce the spatiotemporal dynamics of the training data. This data-driven propagator can then be used to forecast or extrapolate dynamics without needing to know a governing equation. STENCIL-NET does not learn a governing equation, nor an approximation to the data themselves. It instead learns a discrete propagator that reproduces the data. It therefore generalizes well to different dynamics and different grid resolutions. By analogy with classic numerical methods, we show that the discrete forecasting operators learned by STENCIL-NET are numerically stable and accurate for data represented on regular Cartesian grids. A once-trained STENCIL-NET model can be used for equation-free forecasting on larger spatial domains and for longer times than it was trained for, as an autonomous predictor of chaotic dynamics, as a coarse-graining method, and as a data-adaptive de-noising method, as we illustrate in numerical experiments. In all tests, STENCIL-NET generalizes better and is computationally more efficient, both in training and inference, than neural network architectures based on local (CNN) or global (FNO) nonlinear convolutions.
Download full-text PDF |
Source |
---|---|
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10406911 | PMC |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-39418-6 | DOI Listing |
PLoS Comput Biol
January 2024
National Center for Theoretical Sciences, Taipei, Taiwan.
Abrupt changes in system states and dynamical behaviors are often observed in natural systems; such phenomena, named regime shifts, are explained as transitions between alternative steady states (more generally, attractors). Various methods have been proposed to detect regime shifts from time series data, but a generic detection method with theoretical linkage to underlying dynamics is lacking. Here, we provide a novel method named Nested-Library Analysis (NLA) to retrospectively detect regime shifts using empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) rooted in theory of attractor reconstruction.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFProc Natl Acad Sci U S A
August 2023
Faculty of Agriculture, Tottori University, Tottori 680-8553, Japan.
Primary productivity response to climatic drivers varies temporally, indicating state-dependent interactions between climate and productivity. Previous studies primarily employed equation-based approaches to clarify this relationship, ignoring the state-dependent nature of ecological dynamics. Here, using 40 y of climate and productivity data from 48 grassland sites across Mongolia, we applied an equation-free, nonlinear time-series analysis to reveal sensitivity patterns of productivity to climate change and variability and clarify underlying mechanisms.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFSci Rep
August 2023
Faculty of Computer Science, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany.
We present an artificial neural network architecture, termed STENCIL-NET, for equation-free forecasting of spatiotemporal dynamics from data. STENCIL-NET works by learning a discrete propagator that is able to reproduce the spatiotemporal dynamics of the training data. This data-driven propagator can then be used to forecast or extrapolate dynamics without needing to know a governing equation.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFProc Natl Acad Sci U S A
March 2023
Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich 8057, Switzerland.
Forecasting the response of ecological systems to environmental change is a critical challenge for sustainable management. The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) posits scaling of biological rates with temperature, but it has had limited application to population dynamic forecasting. Here we use the temperature dependence of the MTE to constrain empirical dynamic modeling (EDM), an equation-free nonlinear machine learning approach for forecasting.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFJ Theor Biol
December 2022
Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, Mathematics Institute and School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK. Electronic address:
The theory of critical slowing down states that a system displays increasing relaxation times as it approaches a critical transition. These changes can be seen in statistics generated from timeseries data, which can be used as early warning signals of a transition. Such early warning signals would be of value for emerging infectious diseases or to understand when an endemic disease is close to elimination.
View Article and Find Full Text PDF