Impact of Ambient Ultrafine Particles on Cause-Specific Mortality in Three German Cities.

Exposure to ambient air pollution has been associated with adverse effects on morbidity and mortality. However, the evidence for ultrafine particles (UFPs; 10-100 nm) based on epidemiological studies remains scarce and inconsistent. We examined associations between short-term exposures to UFPs and total particle number concentrations (PNCs; 10-800 nm) and cause-specific mortality in three German cities: Dresden, Leipzig, and Augsburg. We obtained daily counts of natural, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality between 2010 and 2017. UFPs and PNCs were measured at six sites, and measurements of fine particulate matter (PM; ⩽2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) and nitrogen dioxide were collected from routine monitoring. We applied station-specific confounder-adjusted Poisson regression models. We investigated air pollutant effects at aggregated lags (0-1, 2-4, 5-7, and 0-7 d after UFP exposure) and used a novel multilevel meta-analytical method to pool the results. Additionally, we assessed interdependencies between pollutants using two-pollutant models. For respiratory mortality, we found a delayed increase in relative risk of 4.46% (95% confidence interval, 1.52 to 7.48%) per 3,223-particles/cm increment 5-7 days after UFP exposure. Effects for PNCs showed smaller but comparable estimates consistent with the observation that the smallest UFP fractions showed the largest effects. No clear associations were found for cardiovascular or natural mortality. UFP effects were independent of PM in two-pollutant models. We found delayed effects for respiratory mortality within 1 week after exposure to UFPs and PNCs but no associations for natural or cardiovascular mortality. This finding adds to the evidence on the independent health effects of UFPs.