A wastewater-based evaluation of the effectiveness of codeine control measures in Australia.

Background And Aim: From 1 February 2018, codeine was rescheduled from an over-the-counter (OTC) to a prescription-only medicine in Australia. We used wastewater-based epidemiology to measure changes in population codeine consumption before and after rescheduling.

Methods: We analysed 3703 wastewater samples from 48 wastewater treatment plants, taken between August 2016 and August 2019. Our samples represented 10.6 million people, 45% of the Australian population in state capitals and regional areas in each state or territory. Codeine concentrations were determined by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry and converted to per-capita consumption estimates using the site daily wastewater volume, catchment populations and codeine excretion kinetics.

Results: Average per-capita consumption of codeine decreased by 37% nationally immediately after the rescheduling in February 2018 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 35.3-39.4%] and substantially in all states between 24 and 51% (95% CI = 22.4-27.0% and 41.8-59.4%). The decrease was sustained at the lower level to August 2019. Locations with least pharmacy access decreased by 51% (95% CI = 41.7-61.7%), a greater decrease than 37% observed for those with greater pharmacy access (95% CI = 35.1-39.4%). Regional areas decreased by a smaller margin to cities (32 versus 38%, 95% CI = 30.2-34.1% versus 34.9-40.4%, respectively) from a base per-capita usage approximately 40% higher than cities.

Conclusion: Wastewater analysis shows that codeine consumption in Australia decreased by approximately 37% following its rescheduling as a prescription-only medicine in 2018. Wastewater-based epidemiology can be used to evaluate changes in population pharmaceutical consumption in responses to changes in drug scheduling.