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With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely to reveal the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. Most research questions focused on the distribution of diversity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers and biological constraints operate at large spatiotemporal scales. However, we can encode proposed mechanisms into models, observe the patterns they produce in virtual environments, and validate these patterns against real-world data or theoretical expectations. This approach can advance understanding of generalizable mechanisms responsible for the distributions of organisms, communities, and ecosystems in space and time, advancing basic and applied science. We review recent developments in process-explicit models and how they have improved knowledge of the distribution and dynamics of life on Earth, enabling biodiversity to be better understood and managed through a deeper recognition of the processes that shape genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity.
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9355350 | PMC |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abj2271 | DOI Listing |
Sci Adv
August 2025
The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.
(caribou or reindeer) survived periods of abrupt climatic warming during the last deglaciation but are currently in global decline. Using process-explicit models of likely climate-human- interactions and inferences of demographic change from radiocarbon-dated fossils and ancient DNA, we reconstruct and decipher 21,000 years of population dynamics. These high-resolution population reconstructions pinpoint ecological characteristics and life-history traits that most likely enabled to survive rapid warming events following the Last Glacial Maximum.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFGlob Chang Biol
May 2025
College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.
Climate change is a major driver of global biodiversity loss, yet the precise mechanisms linking climate change to population declines remain poorly understood. We developed a novel, broadly applicable framework that integrates biophysical, nutritional, and population modeling to capture fundamental physiological constraints on mammalian herbivores and applied it to investigate the causes of declines in ringtail possums of the Australian Wet Tropics (Pseudochirops archeri and Hemibelideus lemuroides). Our approach bridges the gap between mechanistic ("bottom-up") models, which simulate species' responses based solely on their traits and local microclimates, and the more common ("top-down") statistical models, which infer species' responses from occurrence or abundance data and standard environmental variables.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFCamb Prism Extinct
December 2024
The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia.
Accurately predicting the vulnerabilities of species to climate change requires a more detailed understanding of the functional and life-history traits that make some species more susceptible to declines and extinctions in shifting climates. This is because existing trait-based correlates of extinction risk from climate and environmental disturbances vary widely, often being idiosyncratic and context dependent. A powerful solution is to analyse the growing volume of biological data on changes in species ranges and abundances using process-explicit ecological models that run at fine temporal and spatial scales and across large geographical extents.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFEcol Lett
February 2025
CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.
The recent acceleration of global climate warming has created an urgent need for reliable projections of species distributions, widely used by natural resource managers. Such projections have been mainly produced by species distribution models with little information on their performances in novel climates. Here, we hindcast the range shifts of forest tree species across Europe over the last 12,000 years to compare the reliability of three different types of models.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFSci Rep
March 2024
Instituto de Ecología A.C., Red de Estudios Moleculares Avanzados, Carretera Antigua a Coatepec 351, El Haya, Xalapa, Veracruz, México.
Evaluating potential routes of invasion of pathogens and vectors of sanitary importance is essential for planning and decision-making at multiple scales. An effective tool are process-explicit models that allow coupling environmental, demographic and dispersal information to evaluate population growth and range dynamics as a function of the abiotic conditions in a region. In this work we simulate multiple dispersal/invasion routes in Mexico that could be taken by ambrosia beetles and a specific symbiont, Harringtonia lauricola, responsible for a severe epiphytic of Lauraceae in North America.
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