Healthcare accessibility in preconflict Syria: a comparative spatial analysis.

Introduction: There is scarce information about the allocation of health resources in Syria. Pre-existing inequalities were further intensified after the 2011 conflict which displaced over 50% of the population. This study provides an analysis of health inequalities in Syria focusing on spatial access to public hospitals and employs data from 2010, just prior to the outbreak of conflict. Establishing a preconflict snapshot of the health system could serve as a helpful baseline assessment for future studies to measure the impact of the conflict on the health system. Such information could also offer systematic data to guide postconflict reconstruction efforts.

Methods: We compared two methods to quantify the inpatient bed access: provider to population ratio (PPR) and two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method. We compared PPR calculated at the governorate level with population weighted 2SFCA score calculated at a resolution of 2 km by 2 km. We then aggregated at the governorate level, tested multiple catchment sizes and calculated Gini coefficient for each governorate.

Results: We found high inequality in access to public hospitals across and within governorates, especially in the north and eastern regions, where all governorates ranked in the lowest two quintiles using both PPR and 2SFCA. Relatively small governorates in the west and the south had higher spatial access and less inequality. Testing variability in catchment size showed that even at 125 km catchment, 65% of the country had accessibility below national average.

Conclusion: Methodologically, the use of 2SFCA provided more nuanced insights about hospital bed allocation than PPR. 2SFCA was able to account for the cross-boundary effect and road network quality. Realistic representation of health accessibility is possible in data-scarce settings such as Syria and could be adapted to assess health access inequalities in conflict and postconflict settings.