A Model for Early Endoscopic Detection of High-Risk Gastroesophageal Varices in Children With Biliary Atresia.

Objective: In children with biliary atresia and portal hypertension, progression to gastroesophageal varices carrying a risk of bleeding depends on age, total serum bilirubin concentration and initial endoscopic features. We report an attempt to use these factors for early detection of high-risk varices (HRVs).

Methods: Based on different combinations of these factors, a model was set to estimate the probabilities of emergence of HRVs at various time intervals. A 10% probability was chosen to set the date of the next endoscopy in children who did not display HRVs initially. A total of 113 children without HRVs who underwent their first endoscopy before age 8 in 2013-2020 were included. A comparison was made with children seen during the period 1990-2012 when this model was not used.

Results: In all, 65 of the 113 children underwent one to five additional endoscopies at dates set according to the model. The emergence of HRVs was recorded in 22 children after a mean interval of 14 months and was managed by endoscopic primary prophylaxis in all but one who underwent liver transplantation. Three other children bled before the next planned endoscopy. Compared with 175 children of the same age ranges without HRVs in the period 1990-2012, the use of the model was associated with a faster detection of HRVs with a lower number of endoscopic procedures (P  = 0.0022 and P  = 0.023, respectively).

Conclusion: The results suggest that the model reported may be a useful tool for the early detection of HRVs to allow primary prophylaxis of bleeding.