Modeling recreational fishing intensity in a complex urbanised estuary.

Urbanised estuaries, ports and harbours are often utilised for recreational purposes, notably recreational angling. Yet there has been little quantitative assessment of the footprint and intensity of these activities at scales suitable for spatial management. Urban and industrialised estuaries have previously been considered as having low conservation value, perhaps due to issues with contamination and disturbance. Studies in recent decades have demonstrated that many of these systems are still highly biodiverse and of high value to local residents. As a response, urbanised estuaries are now being considered by coastal spatial management initiatives, where assessments of recreational use in these areas can help avoid 'user-environmental' and 'user-user' conflict. The models of these activities need to be developed at a scale relevant to governments and regulatory authorities, but the few human-use models that do exist integrate fishing intensity to a regional or even continental scale; too large to capture the fine scale variation inherent in complex urban fisheries. Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) is a tool commonly used to assess drivers of species range, but can be applied to models of recreational fishing in complex environments, at a scale relevant to regulatory bodies. Using point-data from 573 visual surveys with recently developed Poisson point process models, we examine the recreational fishery in Australia's busiest estuarine port, Sydney Harbour. We demonstrate the utility of these models for understanding the distribution of boat and shore-based fishers, and the effects of a range of temporally static (geographical) and dynamic (weather) predictors on these distributions.