Monitoring occurrence, extinction, and colonization probabilities for gibbon populations.

All gibbon species (Family: Hylobatidae) are considered threatened with extinction and recognized on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species. Because gibbons are one of the most threatened families of primates, monitoring their status is now critically important. Long-term monitoring programs applying occupancy approaches, in addition to assessing occurrence probability, improves understanding of other population parameters such as site extinction or colonization probabilities, which elucidate temporal and spatial changes and are therefore important for guiding conservation efforts. In this study, we used multiple season occupancy models to monitor occurrence, extinction, and colonization probabilities for northern yellow-cheeked crested gibbon Nomascus annamensis in three adjacent protected areas in the Central Annamites mountain range, Vietnam. We collected data at 30 listening posts in 2012, 2014, and 2016 using the auditory point count method. Occurrence probabilities were highest in 2012 (0.74, confidence interval [CI]: 0.56-0.87) but slightly lower in 2014 (0.66, CI: 0.51-0.79) and 2016 (0.67, CI: 0.49-0.81). Extinction probabilities during the 2012-2014 and 2014-2016 intervals were 0.26 (0.14-0.44) and 0.25 (0.12-0.44), respectively. Colonization probabilities during 2012-2014 were 0.44 (0.19-0.73) and between 2014 and 2016 was 0.51 (0.26-0.75). Although local site extinctions have occurred, high recolonization probability helped to replenish the unoccupied sites and kept the occurrence probability stable. Long-term monitoring programs which use occurrence probability alone might not fully reveal the true dynamics of gibbon populations. We strongly recommend including multiple season occupancy models to monitor occurrence, extinction, and colonization probabilities in long-term gibbon monitoring programs.