Performance of claims-based algorithms for identifying incident thyroid cancer in commercial health plan enrollees receiving antidiabetic drug therapies.

Background: Thyroid cancer incidence is increasing in the United States (US) and many other countries. The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate algorithms using administrative medical claims data for identification of incident thyroid cancer.

Methods: This effort was part of a prospective cohort study of adults initiating therapy on antidiabetic drugs and used administrative data from a large commercial health insurer in the US. Patients had at least 6 months of continuous enrollment prior to initiation during 2009-2013, with follow-up through March, 2014 or until disenrollment. Potential incident thyroid cancers were identified using International Classification of Diseases, 9 Revision (ICD-9) diagnosis code 193 (malignant neoplasm of the thyroid gland). Medical records were adjudicated by a thyroid cancer specialist. Several clinical variables (e.g., hospitalization, treatments) were considered as predictors of case status. Positive predictive values (PPVs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to evaluate the performance of two primary algorithms.

Results: Charts were requested for 170 patients, 150 (88%) were received and 141 (80%) had sufficient information to adjudicate. Of the 141 potential cases identified using ≥1 ICD-9 diagnosis code 193, 72 were confirmed as incident thyroid cancer (PPV of 51% (95% CI 43-60%)). Adding the requirement for thyroid surgery increased the PPV to 68% (95% CI 58-77%); including the presence of other therapies (chemotherapy, radio-iodine therapy) had no impact. When cases were required to have thyroid surgery during follow-up and ≥2 ICD-9 193 codes within 90 days of this surgery, the PPV was 91% (95% CI 81-96%); 62 (82%) of the true cases were identified and 63 (91%) of the non-cases were removed from consideration by the algorithm as potential cases.

Conclusions: These findings suggest a significant degree of misclassification results from relying only on ICD-9 diagnosis codes to detect thyroid cancer. An administrative claims-based algorithm was developed that performed well to identify true incident thyroid cancer cases.