Prediction of Pancreatic Fistula After Distal Pancreatectomy Based on Cross-Sectional Images.

Background: Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is one of the most common and clinically relevant complications after distal pancreatectomy (DP), occurring in 5-40% of patients. Determining risk factors for this complication may aid in its prevention. This study sought to predict the development of POPF after DP preoperatively and objectively based on radiologic findings.

Methods: This study included 60 patients who underwent DP using a stapler for pancreatic division between June 2011 and January 2013. Fatty infiltration, apparent diffusion coefficients (ADC) on preoperative MRI, pathologic fat, and fibrosis were measured. Pancreatic thickness and cross-sectional area of the pancreas stump on CT scan were also measured.

Results: Mean patient age was 60.5 years, 26 patients (46.3%) had pancreatic cancer and 20 (33.3%) underwent laparoscopic surgery. Clinically relevant POPF was observed in 12 patients (20.0%). Linear regression analysis showed a significant correlation between fat quantification on MRI and pathologic fat (pathologic fat = 1.978 × MR fat -6.393, p < 0.001, R  = 0.777). Univariate analysis showed that ≤8% fat on MRI (p = 0.040), ≤5% pathologic fat (p = 0.002), ADC ≤ 1.3 × 10 mm/s (p = 0.020), thicker pancreas (p = 0.007), and wider cross-sectional area of the pancreas (p = 0.013) were significantly associated with clinically relevant POPF after DP. Multivariate analysis revealed that pancreas thickness >17.6 mm [odds ratio (OR) 6.532, p = 0.064] and cross-sectional area >377 mm (OR 12.676, p = 0.052) were marginally related to clinically relevant POPF.

Conclusions: Pancreatic thickness and cross-sectional area of the transected surface of the pancreas are marginally significant risk factors for POPF development after DP. Measuring pancreatic thickness and cross-sectional area can be a promising tool for the preoperative prediction of POPF.