Predictability of US West Coast Ocean Temperatures is not solely due to ENSO.

The causes of the extreme and persistent warming in the Northeast Pacific from the winter of 2013/14 to that of 2014/15 are still not fully understood. While global warming may have contributed, natural influences may also have played a role. El Niño events are often implicated in anomalously warm conditions along the US West Coast (USWC).

Understanding the distinctively skewed and heavy tailed character of atmospheric and oceanic probability distributions.

The probability distributions of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables are generally skewed and heavy-tailed. We argue that their distinctive departures from Gaussianity arise fundamentally from the fact that in a quadratically nonlinear system with a quadratic invariant, the coupling coefficients between system components are not constant but depend linearly on the system state in a distinctive way. In particular, the skewness arises from a tendency of the system trajectory to linger near states of weak coupling.

Alternative interpretations of power-law distributions found in nature.

We investigate two inherently different classes of probability density functions (pdfs) that share the common property of power law tails: the α-stable Lévy process and the linear Markov diffusion process with additive and multiplicative Gaussian noise. Dynamical processes described by these distributions cannot be uniquely identified as belonging to one or the other class either by diverging variance due to power-law tails in the pdf or by the possible existence of skew. However, there are distinguishing features that may be found in sufficiently well sampled time series.