Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19.

Background: Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain.

Methods: Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage.

Credibility assessment of in silico clinical trials for medical devices.

In silico clinical trials (ISCTs) are an emerging method in modeling and simulation where medical interventions are evaluated using computational models of patients. ISCTs have the potential to provide cost-effective, time-efficient, and ethically favorable alternatives for evaluating the safety and effectiveness of medical devices. However, ensuring the credibility of ISCT results is a significant challenge.

A computational modeling framework for pre-clinical evaluation of cardiac mapping systems.

There are a variety of difficulties in evaluating clinical cardiac mapping systems, most notably the inability to record the transmembrane potential throughout the entire heart during patient procedures which prevents the comparison to a relevant "gold standard". Cardiac mapping systems are comprised of hardware and software elements including sophisticated mathematical algorithms, both of which continue to undergo rapid innovation. The purpose of this study is to develop a computational modeling framework to evaluate the performance of cardiac mapping systems.

Validation framework for epidemiological models with application to COVID-19 models.

Mathematical models have been an important tool during the COVID-19 pandemic, for example to predict demand of critical resources such as medical devices, personal protective equipment and diagnostic tests. Many COVID-19 models have been developed. However, there is relatively little information available regarding reliability of model predictions.

Development and validation of a mathematical model of heart rate response to fluid perturbation.

Physiological closed-loop controlled (PCLC) medical devices monitor and automatically adjust the patient's condition by using physiological variables as feedback, ideally with minimal human intervention to achieve the target levels set by a clinician. PCLC devices present a challenge when it comes to evaluating their performance, where conducting large clinical trials can be expensive. Virtual physiological patients simulated by validated mathematical models can be utilized to obtain pre-clinical evidence of safety and assess the performance of the PCLC medical device during normal and worst-case conditions that are unlikely to happen in a limited clinical trial.

Credibility assessment of patient-specific computational modeling using patient-specific cardiac modeling as an exemplar.

Reliable and robust simulation of individual patients using patient-specific models (PSMs) is one of the next frontiers for modeling and simulation (M&S) in healthcare. PSMs, which form the basis of digital twins, can be employed as clinical tools to, for example, assess disease state, predict response to therapy, or optimize therapy. They may also be used to construct virtual cohorts of patients, for in silico evaluation of medical product safety and/or performance.

Design and execution of a verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification plan for a numerical model of left ventricular flow after LVAD implantation.

Background: Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are implantable pumps that act as a life support therapy for patients with severe heart failure. Despite improving the survival rate, LVAD therapy can carry major complications. Particularly, the flow distortion introduced by the LVAD in the left ventricle (LV) may induce thrombus formation.

A Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Perspective on the Importance of Parameter Identifiability.

There is an inherent tension in Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) between the need to incorporate mathematical descriptions of complex physiology and drug targets with the necessity of developing robust, predictive and well-constrained models. In addition to this, there is no "gold standard" for model development and assessment in QSP. Moreover, there can be confusion over terminology such as model and parameter identifiability; complex and simple models; virtual populations; and other concepts, which leads to potential miscommunication and misapplication of methodologies within modeling communities, both the QSP community and related disciplines.

Evaluation framework for systems models.

As decisions in drug development increasingly rely on predictions from mechanistic systems models, assessing the predictive capability of such models is becoming more important. Several frameworks for the development of quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models have been proposed. In this paper, we add to this body of work with a framework that focuses on the appropriate use of qualitative and quantitative model evaluation methods.

Credibility Assessment of a Subject-Specific Mathematical Model of Blood Volume Kinetics for Prediction of Physiological Response to Hemorrhagic Shock and Fluid Resuscitation.

Subject-specific mathematical models for prediction of physiological parameters such as blood volume, cardiac output, and blood pressure in response to hemorrhage have been developed. studies using these models may provide an effective tool to generate pre-clinical safety evidence for medical devices and help reduce the size and scope of animal studies that are performed prior to initiation of human trials. To achieve such a goal, the credibility of the mathematical model must be established for the purpose of pre-clinical testing.

Data-Driven Uncertainty Quantification for Cardiac Electrophysiological Models: Impact of Physiological Variability on Action Potential and Spiral Wave Dynamics.

Computational modeling of cardiac electrophysiology (EP) has recently transitioned from a scientific research tool to clinical applications. To ensure reliability of clinical or regulatory decisions made using cardiac EP models, it is vital to evaluate the uncertainty in model predictions. Model predictions are uncertain because there is typically substantial uncertainty in model input parameters, due to measurement error or natural variability.

Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterize uncertainty in model inputs and how that propagates through to outputs or predictions; examples of this can be seen in the papers of this issue. In this review and perspective piece, we draw attention to an important and under-addressed source of uncertainty in our predictions-that of uncertainty in the model structure or the equations themselves.

The 'Digital Twin' to enable the vision of precision cardiology.

Providing therapies tailored to each patient is the vision of precision medicine, enabled by the increasing ability to capture extensive data about individual patients. In this position paper, we argue that the second enabling pillar towards this vision is the increasing power of computers and algorithms to learn, reason, and build the 'digital twin' of a patient. Computational models are boosting the capacity to draw diagnosis and prognosis, and future treatments will be tailored not only to current health status and data, but also to an accurate projection of the pathways to restore health by model predictions.

Comprehensive Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Cardiac Action Potential Models.

Recent efforts to ensure the reliability of computational model-based predictions in healthcare, such as the ASME V&V40 Standard, emphasize the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) when evaluating computational models. UQ involves empirically determining the uncertainty in model inputs-typically resulting from natural variability or measurement error-and then calculating the resultant uncertainty in model outputs. SA involves calculating how uncertainty in model outputs can be apportioned to input uncertainty.

Effect of Heart Structure on Ventricular Fibrillation in the Rabbit: A Simulation Study.

Ventricular fibrillation (VF) is a lethal condition that affects millions worldwide. The mechanism underlying VF is unstable reentrant electrical waves rotating around lines called filaments. These complex spatio-temporal patterns can be studied using both experimental and numerical methods.

Credibility Evidence for Computational Patient Models Used in the Development of Physiological Closed-Loop Controlled Devices for Critical Care Medicine.

Physiological closed-loop controlled medical devices automatically adjust therapy delivered to a patient to adjust a measured physiological variable. In critical care scenarios, these types of devices could automate, for example, fluid resuscitation, drug delivery, mechanical ventilation, and/or anesthesia and sedation. Evidence from simulations using computational models of physiological systems can play a crucial role in the development of physiological closed-loop controlled devices; but the utility of this evidence will depend on the credibility of the computational model used.

Advancing Regulatory Science With Computational Modeling for Medical Devices at the FDA's Office of Science and Engineering Laboratories.

Protecting and promoting public health is the mission of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

Applying a Computational Model Credibility Framework to Physiological Closed-loop Controlled Medical Device Testing.

Physiological closed-loop controlled medical devices are safety-critical systems that combine patient monitors with therapy delivery devices to automatically titrate therapy to meet a patient's current need. Computational models of physiological systems can be used to test these devices and generate pre-clinical evidence of safety and performance before using the devices on patients. The credibility, utility, and acceptability of such model-based test results will depend on, among other factors, the computational model used.

Patient-Specific Cardiovascular Computational Modeling: Diversity of Personalization and Challenges.

Patient-specific computer models have been developed representing a variety of aspects of the cardiovascular system spanning the disciplines of electrophysiology, electromechanics, solid mechanics, and fluid dynamics. These physiological mechanistic models predict macroscopic phenomena such as electrical impulse propagation and contraction throughout the entire heart as well as flow and pressure dynamics occurring in the ventricular chambers, aorta, and coronary arteries during each heartbeat. Such models have been used to study a variety of clinical scenarios including aortic aneurysms, coronary stenosis, cardiac valvular disease, left ventricular assist devices, cardiac resynchronization therapy, ablation therapy, and risk stratification.

Validation and Trustworthiness of Multiscale Models of Cardiac Electrophysiology.

Computational models of cardiac electrophysiology have a long history in basic science applications and device design and evaluation, but have significant potential for clinical applications in all areas of cardiovascular medicine, including functional imaging and mapping, drug safety evaluation, disease diagnosis, patient selection, and therapy optimisation or personalisation. For all stakeholders to be confident in model-based clinical decisions, cardiac electrophysiological (CEP) models must be demonstrated to be trustworthy and reliable. Credibility, that is, the belief in the predictive capability, of a computational model is primarily established by performing validation, in which model predictions are compared to experimental or clinical data.

A Parsimonious Model of the Rabbit Action Potential Elucidates the Minimal Physiological Requirements for Alternans and Spiral Wave Breakup.

Elucidating the underlying mechanisms of fatal cardiac arrhythmias requires a tight integration of electrophysiological experiments, models, and theory. Existing models of transmembrane action potential (AP) are complex (resulting in over parameterization) and varied (leading to dissimilar predictions). Thus, simpler models are needed to elucidate the "minimal physiological requirements" to reproduce significant observable phenomena using as few parameters as possible.

Uncertainty and variability in computational and mathematical models of cardiac physiology.

Key Points: Mathematical and computational models of cardiac physiology have been an integral component of cardiac electrophysiology since its inception, and are collectively known as the Cardiac Physiome. We identify and classify the numerous sources of variability and uncertainty in model formulation, parameters and other inputs that arise from both natural variation in experimental data and lack of knowledge. The impact of uncertainty on the outputs of Cardiac Physiome models is not well understood, and this limits their utility as clinical tools.