Contribution of microcosm experiments to conservation science.

Microcosms, or miniature experimental systems, have been used to develop models and theories in ecology. However, their contribution to conservation science is unclear. We explored the application, design, and impact of microcosms in conservation science from 469 systematically identified articles published from 1986 to 2023.

A field experiment characterizing variable detection rates during plant surveys.

Surveys aimed at finding threatened and invasive species can be challenging due to individual rarity and low and variable individual detection rates. Detection rate in plant surveys typically varies due to differences among observers, among the individual plants being surveyed (targets), and across background environments. Interactions among these 3 components may occur but are rarely estimated due to limited replication and control during data collection.

Traits explain invasion of alien plants into tropical rainforests.

1. The establishment of new botanic gardens in tropical regions highlights a need for weed risk assessment tools suitable for tropical ecosystems. The relevance of plant traits for invasion into tropical rainforests has not been well studied.

Fire and biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

Fire has been a source of global biodiversity for millions of years. However, interactions with anthropogenic drivers such as climate change, land use, and invasive species are changing the nature of fire activity and its impacts. We review how such changes are threatening species with extinction and transforming terrestrial ecosystems.

Reallocating budgets among ongoing and emerging conservation projects.

Conserving biodiversity and combating ecological hazards require cost-effective allocation of limited resources among potential management projects. Project priorities, however, can change over time as underlying social-ecological systems progress, novel priorities emerge, and management capabilities evolve. Thus, reallocation of ongoing investments in response to shifting priorities could improve management outcomes and address urgent demands, especially when additional funding is not available immediately.

Using decision science to evaluate global biodiversity indices.

Global biodiversity indices are used to measure environmental change and progress toward conservation goals, yet few indices have been evaluated comprehensively for their capacity to detect trends of interest, such as declines in threatened species or ecosystem function. Using a structured approach based on decision science, we qualitatively evaluated 9 indices commonly used to track biodiversity at global and regional scales against 5 criteria relating to objectives, design, behavior, incorporation of uncertainty, and constraints (e.g.

Early warning signals of recovery in complex systems.

Early warning signals (EWSs) offer the hope that patterns observed in data can predict the future states of ecological systems. While a large body of research identifies such signals prior to the collapse of populations, the prediction that such signals should also be present before a system's recovery has thus far been overlooked. We assess whether EWSs are present prior to the recovery of overexploited marine systems using a trait-based ecological model and analysis of real-world fisheries data.

Simultaneous-count models to estimate abundance from counts of unmarked individuals with imperfect detection.

We developed a method to estimate population abundance from simultaneous counts of unmarked individuals over multiple sites. We considered that at each sampling occasion, individuals in a population could be detected at 1 of the survey sites or remain undetected and used either multinomial or binomial simultaneous-count models to estimate abundance, the latter being equivalent to an N-mixture model with one site. We tested model performance with simulations over a range of detection probabilities, population sizes, growth rates, number of years, sampling occasions, and sites.

Traits influence detection of exotic plant species in tropical forests.

Detecting exotic plant species is essential for invasive species management. By accounting for factors likely to affect species' detection rates (e.g.

Seasonal asthma in Melbourne, Australia, and some observations on the occurrence of thunderstorm asthma and its predictability.

We examine the seasonality of asthma-related hospital admissions in Melbourne, Australia, in particular the contribution and predictability of episodic thunderstorm asthma. Using a time-series ecological approach based on asthma admissions to Melbourne metropolitan hospitals, we identified seasonal peaks in asthma admissions that were centred in late February, June and mid-November. These peaks were most likely due to the return to school, winter viral infections and seasonal allergies, respectively.

Optimal timing of biodiversity offsetting for metapopulations.

Biodiversity offsetting schemes permit habitat destruction, provided that losses are compensated by gains elsewhere. While hundreds of offsetting schemes are used around the globe, the optimal timing of habitat creation in such projects is poorly understood. Here, we developed a spatially explicit metapopulation model for a single species subject to a habitat compensation scheme.

Consistent patterns of vehicle collision risk for six mammal species.

The occurrence and rate of wildlife-vehicle collisions are related to both anthropocentric and environmental variables, however, few studies compare collision risks for multiple species within a model framework that is adaptable and transferable. Our research compares collision risk for multiple species across a large geographic area using a conceptually simple risk framework. We used six species of native terrestrial mammal often involved with wildlife-vehicle collisions in south-east Australia.

Metaresearch for Evaluating Reproducibility in Ecology and Evolution.

Recent replication projects in other disciplines have uncovered disturbingly low levels of reproducibility, suggesting that those research literatures may contain unverifiable claims. The conditions contributing to irreproducibility in other disciplines are also present in ecology. These include a large discrepancy between the proportion of "positive" or "significant" results and the average statistical power of empirical research, incomplete reporting of sampling stopping rules and results, journal policies that discourage replication studies, and a prevailing publish-or-perish research culture that encourages questionable research practices.

Two-step adaptive management for choosing between two management actions.

Adaptive management is widely advocated to improve environmental management. Derivations of optimal strategies for adaptive management, however, tend to be case specific and time consuming. In contrast, managers might seek relatively simple guidance, such as insight into when a new potential management action should be considered, and how much effort should be expended on trialing such an action.

A simple framework for a complex problem? Predicting wildlife-vehicle collisions.

Collisions of vehicles with wildlife kill and injure animals and are also a risk to vehicle occupants, but preventing these collisions is challenging. Surveys to identify problem areas are expensive and logistically difficult. Computer modeling has identified correlates of collisions, yet these can be difficult for managers to interpret in a way that will help them reduce collision risk.

Learning about colonization when managing metapopulations under an adaptive management framework.

Adaptive management is a framework for resolving key uncertainties while managing complex ecological systems. Its use has been prominent in fisheries research and wildlife harvesting; however, its application to other areas of environmental management remains somewhat limited. Indeed, adaptive management has not been used to guide and inform metapopulation restoration, despite considerable uncertainty surrounding such actions.

Abiotic and biotic interactions determine whether increased colonization is beneficial or detrimental to metapopulation management.

Increasing the colonization rate of metapopulations can improve persistence, but can also increase exposure to threats. To make good decisions, managers must understand whether increased colonization is beneficial or detrimental to metapopulation persistence. While a number of studies have examined interactions between metapopulations, colonization, and threats, they have assumed that threat dynamics respond linearly to changes in colonization.

I Environmental DNA sampling is more sensitive than a traditional survey technique for detecting an aquatic invader.

Effective management of alien species requires detecting populations in the early stages of invasion. Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling can detect aquatic species at relatively low densities, but few studies have directly compared detection probabilities of eDNA sampling with those of traditional sampling methods. We compare the ability of a traditional sampling technique (bottle trapping) and eDNA to detect a recently established invader, the smooth newt Lissotriton vulgaris vulgaris, at seven field sites in Melbourne, Australia.

Planning for ex situ conservation in the face of uncertainty.

Ex situ conservation strategies for threatened species often require long-term commitment and financial investment to achieve management objectives. We present a framework that considers the decision to adopt ex situ management for a target species as the end point of several linked decisions. We used a decision tree to intuitively represent the logical sequence of decision making.

Demographic Effects of Habitat Restoration for the Grey-Crowned Babbler Pomatostomus temporalis, in Victoria, Australia.

Background: Considerable resources are spent on habitat restoration across the globe to counter the impacts of habitat loss and degradation on wildlife populations. But, because of time and resourcing constraints on many conservation programs, the effectiveness of these habitat restoration programs in achieving their long-term goals of improving the population viability of particular wildlife species is rarely assessed and many restoration programs cannot demonstrate their effectiveness. Without such demonstration, and in particular demonstrating the causal relationships between habitat restoration actions and demographic responses of the target species, investments in restoration to achieve population outcomes are of uncertain value.

The neglected tool in the Bayesian ecologist's shed: a case study testing informative priors' effect on model accuracy.

Despite benefits for precision, ecologists rarely use informative priors. One reason that ecologists may prefer vague priors is the perception that informative priors reduce accuracy. To date, no ecological study has empirically evaluated data-derived informative priors' effects on precision and accuracy.

Phylogenetic diversity meets conservation policy: small areas are key to preserving eucalypt lineages.

Evolutionary and genetic knowledge is increasingly being valued in conservation theory, but is rarely considered in conservation planning and policy. Here, we integrate phylogenetic diversity (PD) with spatial reserve prioritization to evaluate how well the existing reserve system in Victoria, Australia captures the evolutionary lineages of eucalypts, which dominate forest canopies across the state. Forty-three per cent of remaining native woody vegetation in Victoria is located in protected areas (mostly national parks) representing 48% of the extant PD found in the state.

The optimal number of surveys when detectability varies.

The survey of plant and animal populations is central to undertaking field ecology. However, detection is imperfect, so the absence of a species cannot be determined with certainty. Methods developed to account for imperfect detectability during surveys do not yet account for stochastic variation in detectability over time or space.