Spatio-temporal analysis of the distribution and co-circulation of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Medellín, Colombia, from 2013 to 2021.

Background: Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika present significant public health challenges in Colombia. Spatial studies help clarify the distribution and progression of these diseases over time and location. Objective to describe the spatio-temporal distribution and clustering patterns of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Medellín, Colombia, between 2013 and 2021, with the aim of providing baseline spatial intelligence to support future epidemiological and policy-oriented analyses.

A statistical model for forecasting probabilistic epidemic bands for dengue cases in Brazil.

Dengue is a vector-borne disease and a major public health concern in Brazil. Its continuing and rising burden has led the Brazilian Ministry of Health to request for modelling efforts to aid in the preparedness and response to the disease. In this context, we propose a Bayesian forecasting model based on historical data to predict the number of cases 52 weeks ahead for the 118 health districts of Brazil.

Introduction, establishment, and distribution of and dengue in a temperate capital of Brazil: a retrospective surveillance-based study.

Background: Dengue is spreading to southern latitudes in Brazil, where the temperate climate was once a barrier to the primary vector, . In this study, our objective was to reconstruct the introduction, establishment, and subsequent expansion of and dengue in Porto Alegre, the southernmost state capital of Brazil, located in Rio Grande do Sul state.

Methods: This ecological study used entomological and epidemiological surveillance data and official reports obtained from municipal health authorities of Porto Alegre, from 2001 to 2021.

Correction: Persistent high mortality rates for Diabetes Mellitus and Hypertension after excluding deaths associated with COVID-19 in Brazil, 2020-2022.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.

Large-scale epidemiological modelling: scanning for mosquito-borne diseases spatio-temporal patterns in Brazil.

The influence of climate on mosquito-borne diseases like dengue and chikungunya is well established, but comprehensively tracking long-term spatial and temporal trends across large areas has been hindered by fragmented data and limited analysis tools. This study presents an unprecedented analysis, in terms of breadth, estimating the susceptible-infectious-recovered transmission parameters from incidence data in all 5570 municipalities in Brazil over 14 years (2010-2023) for both dengue and chikungunya. We describe the Episcanner computational pipeline, developed to estimate these parameters, producing a reusable dataset characterizing all dengue and chikungunya epidemics that have taken place in this period in Brazil.

A nationwide joint spatial modelling of simultaneous epidemics of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Colombia.

Background: Chikungunya, and Zika emerged in the 2010s in the Americas, causing simultaneous epidemics with dengue. However, little is known of these Aedes-borne diseases (ABDs) joint patterns and contributors at the population-level.

Methods: We applied a novel Poisson-multinomial spatial model to the registered cases of dengue (n = 291,820), chikungunya (n = 75,913), and Zika (n = 72,031) by municipality in Colombia, 2014-2016.

A Bayesian hierarchical model for disease mapping that accounts for scaling and heavy-tailed latent effects.

In disease mapping, the relative risk of a disease is commonly estimated across different areas within a region of interest. The number of cases in an area is often assumed to follow a Poisson distribution whose mean is decomposed as the product between an offset and the logarithm of the disease's relative risk. The log risk may be written as the sum of fixed effects and latent random effects.

Evaluation of the design of the influenza-like illness sentinel surveillance system in Brazil.

The influenza-like illness (ILI) sentinel surveillance operates in Brazil to identify respiratory viruses of public health relevance circulating in the country and was first implemented in 2000. Recently, the COVID-19 pandemic reinforced the importance of early detection of the circulation of new viruses in Brazil. Therefore, an analysis of the design of the ILI sentinel surveillance is timely.

Persistent high mortality rates for Diabetes Mellitus and Hypertension after excluding deaths associated with COVID-19 in Brazil, 2020-2022.

Introduction: The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) posed a significant public health challenge globally, with Brazil being no exception. Excess mortality during this period reached alarming levels. Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), Systemic Hypertension (HTN), and Diabetes Mellitus (DM) were associated with increased mortality.

Zika emergence, persistence, and transmission rate in Colombia: a nationwide application of a space-time Markov switching model.

Zika, a viral disease transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes, emerged in the Americas in 2015, causing large-scale epidemics. Colombia alone reported over 72,000 Zika cases between 2015 and 2016. Using national surveillance data from 1121 municipalities over 70 weeks, we identified sociodemographic and environmental factors associated with Zika's emergence, re-emergence, persistence, and transmission intensity in Colombia.

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against severe cases and deaths in Brazil from 2021 to 2022: a registry-based study.

Background: Brazil started the COVID-19 mass vaccination in January 2021 with CoronaVac and ChAdOx1, followed by BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines.

Identifying hidden Zika hotspots in Pernambuco, Brazil: a spatial analysis.

Background: Northeast Brazil has the world's highest rate of Zika-related microcephaly. However, Zika case counts cannot accurately describe burden because mandatory reporting was only established when the epidemic was declining in the region.

Methods: To advance the study of the Zika epidemic, we identified hotspots of Zika in Pernambuco state, Northeast Brazil, using Aedes-borne diseases (dengue, chikungunya and Zika) and microcephaly data.

Spatio-temporal clusters and patterns of spread of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Colombia.

Background: Colombia has one of the highest burdens of arboviruses in South America. The country was in a state of hyperendemicity between 2014 and 2016, with co-circulation of several Aedes-borne viruses, including a syndemic of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in 2015.

Methodology/principal Findings: We analyzed the cases of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika notified in Colombia from January 2014 to December 2018 by municipality and week.

Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics.

The spread of dengue and other arboviruses constitutes an expanding global health threat. The extensive heterogeneity in population distribution and potential complexity of movement in megacities of low and middle-income countries challenges predictive modeling, even as its importance to disease spread is clearer than ever. Using surveillance data at fine resolution from Rio de Janeiro, we document a scale-invariant pattern in the size of successive epidemics following DENV4 emergence.

Identification of priority groups for COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil.

In a context of community transmission and shortage of vaccines, COVID-19 vaccination should focus on directly reducing the morbidity and mortality caused by the disease. It was thus essential to define priority groups for vaccination by the Brazilian National Immunization Program (PNI in Portuguese), based on the risk of hospitalization and death from the disease. We calculated overrisk according to sex, age group, and comorbidities using hospitalization and death records from severe acute respiratory illness with confirmation of COVID-19 (SARI-COVID) in all of Brazil in the first 6 months of the epidemic.

Spatio-temporal modelling of the first Chikungunya epidemic in an intra-urban setting: The role of socioeconomic status, environment and temperature.

Three key elements are the drivers of Aedes-borne disease: mosquito infestation, virus circulating, and susceptible human population. However, information on these aspects is not easily available in low- and middle-income countries. We analysed data on factors that influence one or more of those elements to study the first chikungunya epidemic in Rio de Janeiro city in 2016.

Association of past dengue fever epidemics with the risk of Zika microcephaly at the population level in Brazil.

Despite all the research done on the first Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemics, it was only after the Brazilian epidemic that the Congenital Zika Syndrome was described. This was made possible due to the large number of babies born with microcephaly in the Northeast region (NE) in a narrow time. We hypothesize that the fivefold difference in the rate of microcephalic neonates between the NE and other regions is partially an effect of the population prior immunity against Dengue viruses (DENV), that cross-react with ZIKV.

Space-time dynamics of a triple epidemic: dengue, chikungunya and Zika clusters in the city of Rio de Janeiro.

Dengue, an arboviral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, has been endemic in Brazil for decades. However, vector-control strategies have not led to a significant reduction in the disease burden and have not been sufficient to prevent chikungunya and Zika entry and establishment in the country. In Rio de Janeiro city, the first Zika and chikungunya epidemics were detected between 2015 and 2016, coinciding with a dengue epidemic.

Factors associated with TB in an indigenous population in Brazil: the effect of a cash transfer program.

The Mato Grosso do Sul State (MS) has the second-largest indigenous population and the highest incidence rates of TB among indigenous people in Brazil. However, little is known about the risk factors associated with active TB in indigenous people in the region, especially regarding socioeconomic factors. The aim of this study is to assess the effect of the Family Allowance Program (BFP) and of other predictors of active TB in a high-risk indigenous population in Brazil.

Profile of circulating levels of IL-1Ra, CXCL10/IP-10, CCL4/MIP-1β and CCL2/MCP-1 in dengue fever and parvovirosis.

Dengue virus (DENV) and parvovirus B19 (B19V) infections are acute exanthematic febrile illnesses that are not easily differentiated on clinical grounds and affect the paediatric population. Patients with these acute exanthematic diseases were studied. Fever was more frequent in DENV than in B19V-infected patients.