Capturing fine-scale coral dynamics with a metacommunity modelling framework.

Natural systems exhibit high spatial variability across multiple scales. Models that can capture ecosystem dynamics across space and time by explicitly incorporating major biological mechanisms are crucial, both for management and for ecological insight. In the case of coral reef systems, much focus has been on modelling variability between reefs, despite substantial variability also existing within reefs.

Interventions to help coral reefs under global change-A complex decision challenge.

Climate change is impacting coral reefs now. Recent pan-tropical bleaching events driven by unprecedented global heat waves have shifted the playing field for coral reef management and policy. While best-practice conventional management remains essential, it may no longer be enough to sustain coral reefs under continued climate change.

Spatial resilience of the Great Barrier Reef under cumulative disturbance impacts.

In the face of increasing cumulative effects from human and natural disturbances, sustaining coral reefs will require a deeper understanding of the drivers of coral resilience in space and time. Here we develop a high-resolution, spatially explicit model of coral dynamics on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Our model accounts for biological, ecological and environmental processes, as well as spatial variation in water quality and the cumulative effects of coral diseases, bleaching, outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf.

The future of resilience-based management in coral reef ecosystems.

Resilience underpins the sustainability of both ecological and social systems. Extensive loss of reef corals following recent mass bleaching events have challenged the notion that support of system resilience is a viable reef management strategy. While resilience-based management (RBM) cannot prevent the damaging effects of major disturbances, such as mass bleaching events, it can support natural processes that promote resistance and recovery.

Contribution of individual rivers to Great Barrier Reef nitrogen exposure with implications for management prioritization.

Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) runoff from Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments is a threat to coral reef health. Several initiatives address this threat, including the Australian Government's Reef 2050 Plan. However, environmental decision makers face an unsolved prioritization challenge: determining the exposure of reefs to DIN from individual rivers.

Impaired recovery of the Great Barrier Reef under cumulative stress.

Corals of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) have declined over the past 30 years. While reef state depends on the balance between disturbance and recovery, most studies have focused on the effects of disturbance on reef decline. We show that coral recovery rates across the GBR declined by an average of 84% between 1992 and 2010.

Vulnerability of the Great Barrier Reef to climate change and local pressures.

Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under pressure from a suite of stressors including cyclones, crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), nutrients from river run-off and warming events that drive mass coral bleaching. Two key questions are: how vulnerable will the GBR be to future environmental scenarios, and to what extent can local management actions lower vulnerability in the face of climate change? To address these questions, we use a simple empirical and mechanistic coral model to explore six scenarios that represent plausible combinations of climate change projections (from four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), cyclones and local stressors. Projections (2017-2050) indicate significant potential for coral recovery in the near-term, relative to current state, followed by climate-driven decline.

Connectivity and systemic resilience of the Great Barrier Reef.

Australia's iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR) continues to suffer from repeated impacts of cyclones, coral bleaching, and outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), losing much of its coral cover in the process. This raises the question of the ecosystem's systemic resilience and its ability to rebound after large-scale population loss. Here, we reveal that around 100 reefs of the GBR, or around 3%, have the ideal properties to facilitate recovery of disturbed areas, thereby imparting a level of systemic resilience and aiding its continued recovery.

Joint estimation of crown of thorns (Acanthaster planci) densities on the Great Barrier Reef.

Crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS; Acanthaster spp.) are an outbreaking pest among many Indo-Pacific coral reefs that cause substantial ecological and economic damage. Despite ongoing CoTS research, there remain critical gaps in observing CoTS populations and accurately estimating their numbers, greatly limiting understanding of the causes and sources of CoTS outbreaks.

Ocean acidification: Linking science to management solutions using the Great Barrier Reef as a case study.

Coral reefs are one of the most vulnerable ecosystems to ocean acidification. While our understanding of the potential impacts of ocean acidification on coral reef ecosystems is growing, gaps remain that limit our ability to translate scientific knowledge into management action. To guide solution-based research, we review the current knowledge of ocean acidification impacts on coral reefs alongside management needs and priorities.

Controlling range expansion in habitat networks by adaptively targeting source populations.

Controlling the spread of invasive species, pests, and pathogens is often logistically limited to interventions that target specific locations at specific periods. However, in complex, highly connected systems, such as marine environments connected by ocean currents, populations spread dynamically in both space and time via transient connectivity links. This results in nondeterministic future distributions of species in which local populations emerge dynamically and concurrently over a large area.

Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change.

Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point.

Greenhouse conditions induce mineralogical changes and dolomite accumulation in coralline algae on tropical reefs.

Human-induced ocean acidification and warming alter seawater carbonate chemistry reducing the calcification of reef-building crustose coralline algae (CCA), which has implications for reef stability. However, due to the presence of multiple carbonate minerals with different solubilities in seawater, the algal mineralogical responses to changes in carbonate chemistry are poorly understood. Here we demonstrate a 200% increase in dolomite concentration in living CCA under greenhouse conditions of high pCO2 (1,225 μatm) and warming (30 °C).

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OCEAN ACIDIFICATION AND WARMING ON THE MORTALITY AND DISSOLUTION OF CORALLINE ALGAE(1).

Coralline algae are among the most sensitive calcifying organisms to ocean acidification as a result of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2 ). Little is known, however, about the combined impacts of increased pCO2 , ocean acidification, and sea surface temperature on tissue mortality and skeletal dissolution of coralline algae. To address this issue, we conducted factorial manipulative experiments of elevated CO2 and temperature and examined the consequences on tissue survival and skeletal dissolution of the crustose coralline alga (CCA) Porolithon (=Hydrolithon) onkodes (Heydr.

Effects of ocean acidification on microbial community composition of, and oxygen fluxes through, biofilms from the Great Barrier Reef.

Rising anthropogenic CO(2) emissions acidify the oceans, and cause changes to seawater carbon chemistry. Bacterial biofilm communities reflect environmental disturbances and may rapidly respond to ocean acidification. This study investigates community composition and activity responses to experimental ocean acidification in biofilms from the Australian Great Barrier Reef.

High CO2 enhances the competitive strength of seaweeds over corals.

Space competition between corals and seaweeds is an important ecological process underlying coral-reef dynamics. Processes promoting seaweed growth and survival, such as herbivore overfishing and eutrophication, can lead to local reef degradation. Here, we present the case that increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) may be an additional process driving a shift from corals to seaweeds on reefs.

Making a model meaningful to coral reef managers in a developing nation: a case study of overfishing and rock anchoring in Indonesia.

Most of the world's coral reefs line the coasts of developing nations, where impacts from intense and destructive fishing practices form critical conservation issues for managers. Overfishing of herbivorous fishes can cause phase shifts to macroalgal dominance, and fishers' use of rocks as anchors lowers coral cover, giving further competitive advantage to macroalgae. Overfishing and anchoring have been studied extensively, but the role of their interaction in lowering coral reef resilience has not been quantified formally.

Heating rate and symbiont productivity are key factors determining thermal stress in the reef-building coral Acropora formosa.

The onset of large-scale coral bleaching events is routinely estimated on the basis of the duration and intensity of thermal anomalies determined as degree heating weeks. Degree heating weeks, however, do not account for differential rates of heating. This study aimed to explore the relationship between different rates of heating above the documented regional winter threshold, and resultant bleaching of the reef-building coral Acropora formosa.

Host pigments: potential facilitators of photosynthesis in coral symbioses.

Reef-building corals occur as a range of colour morphs because of varying types and concentrations of pigments within the host tissues, but little is known about their physiological or ecological significance. Here, we examined whether specific host pigments act as an alternative mechanism for photoacclimation in the coral holobiont. We used the coral Montipora monasteriata (Forskål 1775) as a case study because it occurs in multiple colour morphs (tan, blue, brown, green and red) within varying light-habitat distributions.

Interactions between morphological and physiological plasticity optimize energy acquisition in corals.

Morphological plasticity in response to environmental heterogeneity may be performance enhancing or may simply result from an intrinsic instability in morphology during development. Although patterns of morphological change are well documented for numerous taxa, it is often unclear whether this plasticity enhances the performance of organisms in the habitat to which they have acclimatized. Reef-building corals are an ideal model system in which to investigate this question.

Natural turbidity variability and weather forecasts in risk management of anthropogenic sediment discharge near sensitive environments.

Coastal development activities can cause local increases in turbidity and sedimentation. This study characterises the spatial and temporal variability of turbidity near an inshore fringing coral reef in the central Great Barrier Reef, under a wide range of natural conditions. Based on the observed natural variability, we outline a risk management scheme to minimise the impact of construction-related turbidity increases.

Environmental limits to growth: physiological niche boundaries of corals along turbidity-light gradients.

The physiological responses of organisms to resources and environmental conditions are important determinants of niche boundaries. In previous work, functional relationships between organism energetics and environment have been limited to energy intakes. However, energetic costs of maintenance may also depend on the supply of resources.