How to avoid a local epidemic becoming a global pandemic.

Here, we combine international air travel passenger data with a standard epidemiological model of the initial 3 mo of the COVID-19 pandemic (January through March 2020; toward the end of which the entire world locked down). Using the information available during this initial phase of the pandemic, our model accurately describes the main features of the actual global development of the pandemic demonstrated by the high degree of coherence between the model and global data. The validated model allows for an exploration of alternative policy efficacies (reducing air travel and/or introducing different degrees of compulsory immigration quarantine upon arrival to a country) in delaying the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 and thus is suggestive of similar efficacy in anticipating the spread of future global disease outbreaks.

The Relative Contribution of Climatic, Demographic Factors, Disease Control Measures and Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity to Variation of Global COVID-19 Transmission.

Despite a substantial number of COVID-19 related research papers published, it remains unclear as to which factors are associated with the observed variation in global transmission and what are their relative levels of importance. This study applies a rigorous statistical framework to provide robust estimations of the factor effects for a global and integrated perspective on this issue. We developed a mixed effect model exploring the relative importance of potential factors driving COVID-19 transmission while incorporating spatial and temporal heterogeneity of spread.

The ecological dynamics of the coronavirus epidemics during transmission from outside sources when is successfully managed below one.

Since COVID-19 spread globally in early 2020 and was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March, many countries are managing the local epidemics effectively through intervention measures that limit transmission. The challenges of immigration of new infections into regions and asymptomatic infections remain. Standard deterministic compartmental models are inappropriate for sub- or peri-critical epidemics (reproductive number close to or less than one), so individual-based models are often used by simulating transmission from an infected person to others.

Associations between changes in population mobility in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and socioeconomic factors at the city level in China and country level worldwide: a retrospective, observational study.

Background: Until broad vaccination coverage is reached and effective therapeutics are available, controlling population mobility (ie, changes in the spatial location of a population that affect the spread and distribution of pathogens) is one of the major interventions used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2. However, population mobility differs across locations, which could reduce the effectiveness of pandemic control measures. Here we assess the extent to which socioeconomic factors are associated with reductions in population mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic, at both the city level in China and at the country level worldwide.

Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves.

Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios.

Antarctica and the strategic plan for biodiversity.

The Strategic Plan for Biodiversity, adopted under the auspices of the Convention on Biological Diversity, provides the basis for taking effective action to curb biodiversity loss across the planet by 2020-an urgent imperative. Yet, Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, which encompass 10% of the planet's surface, are excluded from assessments of progress against the Strategic Plan. The situation is a lost opportunity for biodiversity conservation globally.

Full circumpolar migration ensures evolutionary unity in the Emperor penguin.

Defining reliable demographic models is essential to understand the threats of ongoing environmental change. Yet, in the most remote and threatened areas, models are often based on the survey of a single population, assuming stationarity and independence in population responses. This is the case for the Emperor penguin Aptenodytes forsteri, a flagship Antarctic species that may be at high risk continent-wide before 2100.

Spatial heterogeneity as a genetic mixing mechanism in highly philopatric colonial seabirds.

How genetic diversity is maintained in philopatric colonial systems remains unclear, and understanding the dynamic balance of philopatry and dispersal at all spatial scales is essential to the study of the evolution of coloniality. In the King penguin, Aptenodytes patagonicus, return rates of post-fledging chicks to their natal sub-colony are remarkably high. Empirical studies have shown that adults return year after year to their previous breeding territories within a radius of a few meters.

Rovers minimize human disturbance in research on wild animals.

Investigating wild animals while minimizing human disturbance remains an important methodological challenge. When approached by a remote-operated vehicle (rover) which can be equipped to make radio-frequency identifications, wild penguins had significantly lower and shorter stress responses (determined by heart rate and behavior) than when approached by humans. Upon immobilization, the rover-unlike humans-did not disorganize colony structure, and stress rapidly ceased.

King penguin demography since the last glaciation inferred from genome-wide data.

How natural climate cycles, such as past glacial/interglacial patterns, have shaped species distributions at the high-latitude regions of the Southern Hemisphere is still largely unclear. Here, we show how the post-glacial warming following the Last Glacial Maximum (ca 18 000 years ago), allowed the (re)colonization of the fragmented sub-Antarctic habitat by an upper-level marine predator, the king penguin Aptenodytes patagonicus. Using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing and standard mitochondrial data, we tested the behaviour of subsets of anonymous nuclear loci in inferring past demography through coalescent-based and allele frequency spectrum analyses.