Publications by authors named "Forrest Lacey"

Air pollution is a global problem and a major contributor to adverse health outcomes in patients of all ages. Most research has focused on the adverse effects of air pollution on cardiopulmonary events such as myocardial infarction, stroke and lung disease, with less attention given to kidney outcomes. In recent years, there is emerging evidence that air pollution contributes to the onset and progression of chronic kidney disease and, specifically, glomerular disease.

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A new configuration of the Community Earth System Model (CESM)/Community Atmosphere Model with full chemistry (CAM-chem) supporting the capability of horizontal mesh refinement through the use of the spectral element (SE) dynamical core is developed and called CESM/CAM-chem-SE. Horizontal mesh refinement in CESM/CAM-chem-SE is unique and novel in that pollutants such as ozone are accurately represented at human exposure relevant scales while also directly including global feedbacks. CESM/CAM-chem-SE with mesh refinement down to ∼14 km over the conterminous US (CONUS) is the beginning of the Multi-Scale Infrastructure for Chemistry and Aerosols (MUSICAv0).

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Ozone is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and methane but has a larger uncertainty in its radiative forcing, in part because of uncertainty in the source characteristics of ozone precursors, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic carbon that directly affect ozone formation chemistry. Tropospheric ozone also negatively affects human and ecosystem health. Biomass burning (BB) and urban emissions are significant but uncertain sources of ozone precursors.

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We use the global Community Earth System Model to investigate the response of secondary pollutants (ozone O, secondary organic aerosols SOA) in different parts of the world in response to modified emissions of primary pollutants during the COVID-19 pandemic. We quantify the respective effects of the reductions in NOx and in volatile organic carbon (VOC) emissions, which, in most cases, affect oxidants in opposite ways. Using model simulations, we show that the level of NOx has been reduced by typically 40% in China during February 2020 and by similar amounts in many areas of Europe and North America in mid-March to mid-April 2020, in good agreement with space and surface observations.

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Low- and middle-income countries have the largest health burdens associated with air pollution exposure, and are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Substantial opportunities have been identified to simultaneously improve air quality and mitigate climate change due to overlapping sources of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions and because a subset of pollutants, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), directly contribute to both impacts. However, planners in low- and middle-income countries often lack practical tools to quantify the air pollution and climate change impacts of different policies and measures.

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Fine particulate matter (PM) is a well-established risk factor for public health. To support both health risk assessment and epidemiological studies, data are needed on spatial and temporal patterns of PM exposures. This review article surveys publicly available exposure datasets for surface PM mass concentrations over the contiguous U.

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Diffuse emission sources outside of kitchen areas are poorly understood, and measurements of their emission factors (EFs) are sparse for regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Thirty-one in-field emission measurements were taken in northern Ghana from combustion sources common to rural regions worldwide. Sources sampled included commercial cooking, trash burning, kerosene lanterns, and diesel generators.

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The African continent is undergoing immense social and economic change, particularly regarding population growth and urbanization, where the urban population in Africa is anticipated to increase by a factor of 3 over the next 40 years. To understand the potential health impacts from this demographical shift and design efficient emission mitigation strategies, we used improved Africa-specific emissions that account for inefficient combustion sources for a number of sectors such as transportation, household energy generation, waste burning, and home heating and cooking. When these underrepresented emissions sources are combined with the current estimates of emissions in Africa, ambient particulate matter concentrations from present-day anthropogenic activity contribute to 13 210 annual premature deaths, with the largest contributions (38%) coming from residential emissions.

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Vehicle emissions contribute to fine particulate matter (PM) and tropospheric ozone air pollution, affecting human health, crop yields and climate worldwide. On-road diesel vehicles produce approximately 20 per cent of global anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO), which are key PM and ozone precursors. Regulated NO emission limits in leading markets have been progressively tightened, but current diesel vehicles emit far more NO under real-world operating conditions than during laboratory certification testing.

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Residential solid fuel use contributes to degraded indoor and ambient air quality and may affect global surface temperature. However, the potential for national-scale cookstove intervention programs to mitigate the latter issues is not yet well known, owing to the spatial heterogeneity of aerosol emissions and impacts, along with coemitted species. Here we use a combination of atmospheric modeling, remote sensing, and adjoint sensitivity analysis to individually evaluate consequences of a 20-y linear phase-out of cookstove emissions in each country with greater than 5% of the population using solid fuel for cooking.

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