Publications by authors named "Conall Watson"

Objectives: We aimed to describe the incidence, presentation and clinical outcomes of RSV-associated acute respiratory infection (ARI) in older adults using a new national Hospital-based ARI Sentinel Surveillance (HARISS) system in England, prior to RSV vaccine introduction.

Methods: Adults aged ≥65 years from seven hospitals admitted for ≥24 hours with symptomatic ARI were included. We estimated the hospitalisation rate of RSV-associated ARI compared to influenza-associated ARI and assessed clinical outcomes using Poisson regression and mortality using Cox regression.

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Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant morbidity. New immunisations to protect infants have been licensed in the UK including a vaccine in pregnancy and a monoclonal antibody injection in infants. The UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has advised that either could be considered suitable for a national programme.

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Background: During 2022, a new public health threat emerged when cases of paediatric acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology (HUA) were identified in children aged under 16 years old in the United Kingdom (UK). At the time, the epidemiology and extent of cases was based upon limited and non-standardised reporting from hospitals and liver units. We aimed to adapt existing real-time syndromic surveillance systems to support the epidemiological investigation of cases of HUA presenting to emergency departments (EDs) in England.

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Introduction: The combination of patient illness and staff absence driven by seasonal viruses culminates in annual "winter pressures" on UK healthcare systems and has been exacerbated by COVID-19. In winter 2022/23 we introduce multiplex testing aiming to determine the incidence of SARS-CoV-2, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in our cohort of UK healthcare workers (HCWs).

Methods: The pilot study was conducted from 28/11/2022-31/03/2023 within the SIREN prospective cohort study.

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Introduction: During the COVID-19 pandemic, extensive research was conducted on SARS-CoV-2; however, important questions about other respiratory pathogens remain unanswered. A severe influenza season in 2022-2023 with simultaneous circulation of SARS-CoV2 and respiratory syncytial virus is anticipated. This sub-study aims to determine the incidence and impact of these respiratory viruses on healthcare workers, the symptoms they experienced, the effectiveness of both COVID-19 and influenza vaccination and the burden of these infections on the National Health Service (NHS) workforce.

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During winter months, there is increased pressure on health care systems in temperature climates due to seasonal increases in respiratory illnesses. Providing real-time short-term forecasts of the demand for health care services helps managers plan their services. During the Winter of 2022-23 we piloted a new forecasting pipeline, using existing surveillance indicators which are sensitive to increases in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

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Article Synopsis
  • The study investigated the effectiveness and safety of the rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine against Zaire Ebolavirus disease among contacts of EVD survivors, focusing on the influence of pre-existing immunity on vaccination outcomes.
  • Ten percent of participants had pre-existing antibodies, but both those with and without antibodies showed significant increases in IgG levels post-vaccination, indicating strong immune responses.
  • The findings support the vaccine's safety and suggest that pre-vaccination antibody screening is unnecessary, as it does not negatively impact the immune response to the vaccine.
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Accurate and representative surveillance is essential for understanding the impact of influenza on healthcare systems. During the 2022-2023 influenza season, the Northern Hemisphere experienced its most significant epidemic wave since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Concurrently, new surveillance systems, developed in response to the pandemic, became available within health services.

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IntroductionRespiratory sentinel surveillance systems leveraging computerised medical records (CMR) use phenotyping algorithms to identify cases of interest, such as acute respiratory infection (ARI). The Oxford-Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC) is the English primary care-based sentinel surveillance network.AimThis study describes and validates the RSC's new ARI phenotyping algorithm.

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Article Synopsis
  • There has been an unusual rise in emergency department visits for pneumonia among children aged 5-14 in England since November 2023.
  • The peak of these visits was noted in March 2024, but high attendance levels continued into early summer 2024.
  • Analysis reveals that this increase was not linked to seasonal respiratory infections, suggesting other factors may be at play.
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Background: We report 2023/2024 season interim influenza vaccine effectiveness for three studies, namely, primary care in Great Britain, hospital settings in Scotland and hospital settings in England.

Methods: A test negative design was used to estimate vaccine effectiveness.

Results: Estimated vaccine effectiveness against all influenzas ranged from 63% (95% confidence interval 46 to 75%) to 65% (41 to 79%) among children aged 2-17, from 36% (20 to 49%) to 55% (43 to 65%) among adults 18-64 and from 40% (29 to 50%) to 55% (32 to 70%) among adults aged 65 and over.

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Background: The 2022/23 influenza season in the United Kingdom saw the return of influenza to prepandemic levels following two seasons with low influenza activity. The early season was dominated by A(H3N2), with cocirculation of A(H1N1), reaching a peak late December 2022, while influenza B circulated at low levels during the latter part of the season. From September to March 2022/23, influenza vaccines were offered, free of charge, to all aged 2-13 (and 14-15 in Scotland and Wales), adults up to 49 years of age with clinical risk conditions and adults aged 50 and above across the mainland United Kingdom.

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Objectives: We evaluated Nanopore sequencing for influenza surveillance.

Methods: Influenza A and B PCR-positive samples from hospital patients in Oxfordshire, UK, and a UK-wide population survey from winter 2022-23 underwent Nanopore sequencing following targeted rt-PCR amplification.

Results: From 941 infections, successful sequencing was achieved in 292/388 (75 %) available Oxfordshire samples: 231 (79 %) A/H3N2, 53 (18 %) A/H1N1, and 8 (3 %) B/Victoria and in 53/113 (47 %) UK-wide samples.

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Background: Prepandemic sentinel surveillance focused on improved management of winter pressures, with influenza-like illness (ILI) being the key clinical indicator. The World Health Organization (WHO) global standards for influenza surveillance include monitoring acute respiratory infection (ARI) and ILI. The WHO's mosaic framework recommends that the surveillance strategies of countries include the virological monitoring of respiratory viruses with pandemic potential such as influenza.

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Article Synopsis
  • Syndromic surveillance traditionally depends on healthcare-seeking patients, but this study suggests that involving community cohorts can yield valuable insights, especially given the presence of multiple respiratory viruses during the 2022/23 winter season in the UK.
  • The research analyzed data from nearly 33,000 tests, revealing SARS-CoV-2, RSV, and influenza A/B positivity rates, with peaks of these viruses occurring at different times and varying by age group, highlighting that younger individuals were most affected by RSV and older individuals by SARS-CoV-2.
  • Findings indicated that many individuals who tested positive reported few symptoms, complicating the ability to distinguish between the viruses solely based on symptoms, and
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Background: Two new products for preventing Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) in young children have been licensed: a single-dose long-acting monoclonal antibody (la-mAB) and a maternal vaccine (MV). To facilitate the selection of new RSV intervention programmes for large-scale implementation, this study provides an assessment to compare the costs of potential programmes with the health benefits accrued.

Methods: Using an existing dynamic transmission model, we compared maternal vaccination to la-mAB therapy against RSV in England and Wales by calculating the impact and cost-effectiveness.

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We present England 2021/22 end-of-season adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) against laboratory confirmed influenza related emergency care use in children aged 1-17 and in adults aged 50+, and serological findings in vaccinated vs unvaccinated adults by hemagglutination inhibition assay. Influenza vaccination has been routinely offered to all children aged 2-10 years and adults aged 65 years + in England. In 2021/22, the offer was extended to children to age 15 years, and adults aged 50-64 years.

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Under International Health Regulations from 2005, a human infection caused by a novel influenza A virus variant is considered an event that has potential for high public health impact and is immediately notifiable to the World Health Organisation. We here describe the clinical, epidemiological and virological features of a confirmed human case of swine influenza A(H1N2)v in England detected through community respiratory virus surveillance. Swabbing and contact tracing helped refine public health risk assessment, following this unusual and unexpected finding.

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Hospital-based transmission had a dominant role in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemics, but large-scale studies of its role in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are lacking. Such transmission risks spreading the virus to the most vulnerable individuals and can have wider-scale impacts through hospital-community interactions. Using data from acute hospitals in England, we quantify within-hospital transmission, evaluate likely pathways of spread and factors associated with heightened transmission risk, and explore the wider dynamical consequences.

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Background: An increase in acute severe hepatitis of unknown aetiology in previously healthy children in the UK in March, 2022, triggered global case-finding. We aimed to describe UK epidemiological investigations of cases and their possible causes.

Methods: We actively surveilled unexplained paediatric acute hepatitis (transaminase >500 international units per litre) in children younger than 16 years presenting since Jan 1, 2022, through notifications from paediatricians, microbiologists, and paediatric liver units; we collected demographic, clinical, and exposure information.

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Article Synopsis
  • Seasonal peaks in infectious disease, like RSV, strain health services, so predicting these peaks is crucial for effective public health response.
  • A proposed Machine Learning approach generates short-term forecasts by selecting models that can accurately predict the timing and magnitude of peak activity, even during unusual seasons.
  • Analysis of RSV data from 2019-2021 shows that models optimized for typical seasons differ from those for atypical seasons; including seasonality can enhance forecasts in normal years but hinder them in atypical situations.
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