Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries and US states prior to mass vaccination.

Industrialised countries had varied responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, which may lead to different death tolls from COVID-19 and other diseases. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian probabilistic models to vital statistics data to estimate the number of weekly deaths if the pandemic had not occurred for 40 industrialised countries and US states from mid-February 2020 through mid-February 2021. We subtracted these estimates from the actual number of deaths to calculate the impacts of the pandemic on all-cause mortality.

Global and regional levels and trends of child and adolescent morbidity from 2000 to 2016: an analysis of years lost due to disability (YLDs).

Introduction: Non-fatal health loss makes a substantial contribution to the total disease burden among children and adolescents. An analysis of these morbidity patterns is essential to plan interventions that improve the health and well-being of children and adolescents. Our objective was to describe current levels and trends in the non-fatal disease burden from 2000 to 2016 among children and adolescents aged 0-19 years.

Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100-231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred.

History of global burden of disease assessment at the World Health Organization.

Background: The World Health Organization collaborated in the first Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), published in the 1993 World Development Report. This paper summarizes the substantial methodological improvements and expanding scope of GBD work carried out by WHO over the next 25 years.

Methods: This review is based on a review of WHO and UN interagency work relating to Global Burden of Disease over the last 20 years, supplemented by a literature review of published papers and commentaries on global burden of disease activities and the production of global health statistics.

Three Public Health Interventions Could Save 94 Million Lives in 25 Years.

Background: Preventable noncommunicable diseases, mostly cardiovascular diseases, are responsible for 38 million deaths annually. A few well-documented interventions have the potential to prevent many of these deaths, but a large proportion of the population in need does not have access to these interventions. We quantified the global mortality impact of 3 high-impact and feasible interventions: scaling up treatment of high blood pressure to 70%, reducing sodium intake by 30%, and eliminating the intake of artificial trans fatty acids.

Acting on non-communicable diseases in low- and middle-income tropical countries.

The classical portrayal of poor health in tropical countries is one of infections and parasites, contrasting with wealthy Western countries, where unhealthy diet and behaviours cause non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as heart disease and cancer. Using international mortality data, we show that most NCDs cause more deaths at every age in low- and middle-income tropical countries than in high-income Western countries. Causes of NCDs in low- and middle-income countries include poor nutrition and living environment, infections, insufficient taxation and regulation of tobacco and alcohol, and under-resourced and inaccessible healthcare.

Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble.

Background: Projections of future mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. Our aim was to forecast national age-specific mortality and life expectancy using an approach that takes into account the uncertainty related to the choice of forecasting model.

Methods: We developed an ensemble of 21 forecasting models, all of which probabilistically contributed towards the final projections.

[Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER Statement].

Measurements of health indicators are rarely available for every population and period of interest, and available data may not be comparable. The Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER) define best reporting practices for studies that calculate health estimates for multiple populations (in time or space) using multiple information sources. Health estimates that fall within the scope of GATHER include all quantitative population-level estimates (including global, regional, national, or subnational estimates) of health indicators, including indicators of health status, incidence and prevalence of diseases, injuries, and disability and functioning; and indicators of health determinants, including health behaviours and health exposures.

Correction: Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER statement.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.

Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting: the GATHER statement.

Gretchen Stevens and colleagues present the GATHER statement, which seeks to promote good practice in the reporting of global health estimates.

Methodological Framework for World Health Organization Estimates of the Global Burden of Foodborne Disease.

Background: The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This paper describes the methodological framework developed by FERG's Computational Task Force to transform epidemiological information into FBD burden estimates.

Methods And Findings: The global and regional burden of 31 FBDs was quantified, along with limited estimates for 5 other FBDs, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years in a hazard- and incidence-based approach.

The World Health Organization and global health estimates: improving collaboration and capacity.

Global, regional, and country statistics on population and health indicators are important for assessing development and health progress and for guiding resource allocation; however, data are often lacking, especially in low- and middle-income countries. To fill the gaps, statistical modelling is frequently used to produce comparable health statistics across countries that can be combined to produce regional and global statistics. The World Health Organization (WHO), in collaboration with other United Nations agencies and academic experts, regularly updates estimates for key indicators and involves its Member States in the process.

Causes of international increases in older age life expectancy.

In high-income countries, life expectancy at age 60 years has increased in recent decades. Falling tobacco use (for men only) and cardiovascular disease mortality (for both men and women) are the main factors contributing to this rise. In high-income countries, avoidable male mortality has fallen since 1980 because of decreases in avoidable cardiovascular deaths.

Avoiding 40% of the premature deaths in each country, 2010-30: review of national mortality trends to help quantify the UN sustainable development goal for health.

Background: The UN will formulate ambitious Sustainable Development Goals for 2030, including one for health. Feasible goals with some quantifiable, measurable targets can influence governments. We propose, as a quatitative health target, "Avoid in each country 40% of premature deaths (under-70 deaths that would be seen in the 2030 population at 2010 death rates), and improve health care at all ages".

Estimating the impact of unsafe water, sanitation and hygiene on the global burden of disease: evolving and alternative methods.

The 2010 global burden of disease (GBD) study represents the latest effort to estimate the global burden of disease and injuries and the associated risk factors. Like previous GBD studies, this latest iteration reflects a continuing evolution in methods, scope and evidence base. Since the first GBD Study in 1990, the burden of diarrhoeal disease and the burden attributable to inadequate water and sanitation have fallen dramatically.

Contribution of six risk factors to achieving the 25×25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study.

Background: Countries have agreed to reduce premature mortality (defined as the probability of dying between the ages of 30 years and 70 years) from four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs)--cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, cancers, and diabetes--by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025 (referred to as 25×25 target). Targets for selected NCD risk factors have also been agreed on. We estimated the contribution of achieving six risk factor targets towards meeting the 25×25 mortality target.

Global mortality trends and patterns in older women.

Objective: To describe mortality patterns in women older than 50 years in light of the growth, seen in almost all countries, in the absolute number of females in this age group and in the proportion of the female population comprising older women.

Methods: National death record data and World Health Organization estimates of life expectancy and causes of death in women older than 50 years were analysed. Projections of trends in mortality, by cause, at older ages were also made.

Counting disability: global and national estimation.

Purpose: How many people with disabilities are in the world? How is disability defined? How can we measure disability in an accurate and comparable way? These are some of the key questions which the recently published World Bank/WHO World Report on Disability (WRD) addresses.

Method: Multiple data sources and methods were used by WHO and the World Bank to estimate a global figure, with the ICF as the underlying data standard. Key international data sources were the World Health Survey of 2002-2004 and the 2004 updates from the Global Burden of Disease study.