Publications by authors named "B Malavika"
Is BCG associated with reduced incidence of COVID-19? A meta-regression of global data from 160 countries.
Clin Epidemiol Glob Health
September 2020
Background: Global research is running towards to find a vaccine to stop the threat of the COVID-19. The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine that prevents severe forms of tuberculosis is getting more attention in this scenario. The objective of our study was to determine the association between BCG vaccine coverage and incidence of COVID-19 at a national-level across the Globe.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFModelling of reproduction number for COVID-19 in India and high incidence states.
Clin Epidemiol Glob Health
June 2020
Article Synopsis
- The paper examines COVID-19 epidemic forecasting in China, focusing on estimating the effective reproduction number (R) over time using reported case numbers in India.
- Employing the Exponential Growth method and Time-dependent approach, researchers calculated R values for various regions, with India's overall R estimated at 1.379.
- Results indicated an initial high R of 3.2 in early March 2020, stabilizing around 1.3 by early April, signaling a potential reversal of the epidemic, although ongoing analyses are recommended.
Forecasting COVID-19 epidemic in India and high incidence states using SIR and logistic growth models.
Clin Epidemiol Glob Health
June 2020
Background: Ever since the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak emerged in China, there has been several attempts to predict the epidemic across the world with varying degrees of accuracy and reliability. This paper aims to carry out a short-term projection of new cases; forecast the maximum number of active cases for India and selected high-incidence states; and evaluate the impact of three weeks lock down period using different models.
Methods: We used Logistic growth curve model for short term prediction; SIR models to forecast the maximum number of active cases and peak time; and Time Interrupted Regression model to evaluate the impact of lockdown and other interventions.