A causal framework for the drivers of animal social network structure.

A major goal of behavioural ecology is to explain how phenotypic and ecological factors shape the networks of social relationships that animals form with one another. This inferential task is notoriously challenging. The social networks of interest are generally not observed, but must be approximated from behavioural samples. Moreover, these data are highly dependent: the observed network edges correlate with one another, due to biological and sampling processes. Failing to account for the resulting uncertainty and biases can lead to dysfunctional statistical procedures, and thus to incorrect results. Here, we argue that these problems should be understood-and addressed-as problems of causal inference. For this purpose, we introduce a Bayesian causal modelling framework that explicitly defines the links between the target interaction network, its causes, and the data. We illustrate the mechanics of our framework with simulation studies and an empirical example. First, we encode causal effects of individual-, dyad-, and group-level features on social interactions using Directed Acyclic Graphs and Structural Causal Models. These quantities are the objects of inquiry, our estimands. Second, we develop estimators for these effects-namely, Bayesian multilevel extensions of the Social Relations Model. Third, we recover the structural parameters of interest, map statistical estimates to the underlying causal structures, and compute causal estimates from the joint posterior distribution. Throughout the manuscript, we develop models layer by layer, thereby illustrating an iterative workflow for causal inference in social networks. We conclude by summarising this workflow as a set of seven steps, and provide practical recommendations.