Evaluation of Kindergarten Through Grade 12 All-Cause Absenteeism Data as an Indicator and Predictor of Respiratory Disease, 2018-2022.

Objectives: Increases in absenteeism among schoolchildren may precede increases in incidence of community-level respiratory diseases. This study assessed the correlations and predictive values between all-cause absenteeism among kindergarten through grade 12 students and community-level increases in influenza and COVID-19.

Methods: We used absenteeism data from 4 school districts (1 each in Arizona, California, Nevada, and Wisconsin) between fall 2018 (starting approximately late August) and spring 2022 (typically ending in May) to calculate correlations between school absenteeism and community-level cases of influenza, percentage of influenza-like illness, and COVID-19. We estimated the positive predictive value (PPV) of a ≥20% increase in school absences to predict a ≥20% increase in community respiratory disease 1 or 2 weeks later.

Results: We observed a median correlation of 0.4 between absenteeism and influenza cases across school years and districts, with a maximum of 0.8. COVID-19 cases had a median correlation of 0.1 with school absenteeism during the 2021-2022 school year. The median PPV for predicting increases 2 weeks ahead was 0.4 for influenza and was 0.3 for COVID-19.

Conclusions: Correlations and PPVs between all-cause school absenteeism and respiratory disease were variable, often <0.5. School and public health officials may find absenteeism an inconsistent predictor of community-level respiratory diseases, limiting its utility for syndromic surveillance. Standardizing absence definitions and improving reporting timeliness may enhance its effectiveness.