Predictive value of circulating tumor tissue-modified HPV DNA kinetics in induction therapy for oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

Background: Tumor tissue-modified viral (TTMV) HPV DNA is a sensitive, highly specific biomarker for human papillomavirus-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPVOPC). We monitored the kinetics of TTMV responses to induction chemotherapy (IC) or induction chemoimmunotherapy (ICI) and analyzed the predictive implications for treatment outcomes.

Methods: Patients with locally advanced HPVOPC with high-risk features were treated with 3 cycles of IC (docetaxel-cisplatin-fluorouracil) or anti-PD1 ICI (docetaxel-cisplatin-Cemiplimab or docetaxel-cisplatin-Pembrolizumab). Depending on clinical trial enrollment, patients were followed by standard- or reduced-dose chemoradiation (CRT) alone or with adjuvant immunotherapy. TTMV testing was done pre-treatment, after each cycle and CRT, and throughout surveillance and analyzed retrospectively.

Results: Twenty-eight subjects (26 male, 13 smokers) had a median pre-treatment TTMV of 1321 fragments (range 27-90770, IQR 200-3217). 10/28 patients reached full TTMV clearance after one IC cycle (IC1), 8/28 after two cycles (IC2), 3/28 after three cycles (IC3), and 1/28 remained TTMV + throughout IC and cleared after CRT. 6/28 did not have complete kinetics (labeled "unknown") due to missing data. All patients were TTMV-negative following CRT. During surveillance, 6/28 patients developed HPVOPC recurrence (1 locoregional, 5 metastatic); of these, 2/6 cleared TTMV after IC2, 2/6 IC3, 1/6 CRT, and 1/6 unknown when he cleared. Rapid clearance after IC1 was associated with having no recurrence (p = 0.046) and lower baseline TTMV (p = 0.049).

Conclusions: Delayed TTMV clearance during induction chemotherapy or chemoimmunotherapy strongly predicted systemic failure and may help identify patients requiring more systemic therapy. Although these data are robust, future studies should validate these retrospective, hypothesis-generating findings in larger cohorts.