Comparative Analysis of Habitat Expansion Mechanisms for Four Invasive Plants Under Current and Future Climates Using MaxEnt.

As China's first systematic assessment of high-risk invaders, this study addresses a critical knowledge gap identified in the National Invasive Species Inventory, in which four invasive species (, , , and ) are prioritized due to CNY 2.6 billion annual ecosystem damages in China. By coupling multi-species comparative analysis with a parameter-optimized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model integrating climate, soil, and topographical variables in China under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 126/245/585 scenarios, we reveal divergent expansion mechanisms (e.g., 247 km faster northward shift in than ) that redefine invasion corridors in the North China Plain. Under current conditions, the suitable habitats of these species span from 92° E to 129° E and 18° N to 49° N, with high-risk zones concentrated in central and southern China, including the Yunnan-Guizhou-Sichuan region and the North China Plain. Temperature variables (Bio: Bioclimatic Variables; Bio6, Bio11) were the primary contributors based on permutation importance (e.g., Bio11 explained 56.4% for ), while altitude (e.g., 27.3% for ) and UV-B (e.g., 16.2% for ) exerted lower influence. Model validation confirmed high accuracy (mean area under the curve (AUC) > 0.86 and true skill statistic (TSS) > 0.6). By the 2090s, all species showed net habitat expansion overall, although exhibited net total contractions during mid-century under the SSP126/245 scenarios, experienced reduced total suitability during the 2050s-2070s despite high-suitability growth, and and expanded significantly in both total and highly suitable habitat. All species shifted their distribution centroids northward, aligning with warming trends. Overall, these findings highlight the critical role of temperature in driving range dynamics and underscore the need for latitude-specific monitoring strategies to mitigate invasion risks, providing a scientific basis for adaptive management under global climate change.