Impact of climate change on the distribution of Tityus scorpions (Buthidae) in the Amazon: Implications for conservation units and indigenous territories.

Climate change is altering the distribution of organisms, affecting ecosystem goods and services. These impacts can pose new challenges for public health due to shifts in the distribution of venomous animals, influencing the dynamics of envenomation incidents. The consequences of climate change are expected to be more severe in tropical regions, where the most vulnerable communities are located. In this context, the increase of scorpionism in recent decades across the vast Amazonian region of Brazil calls for an assessment of future risks. In this study, we analyze the effects of climate change by the year 2070 under different future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) on the distribution of the three most medically important scorpion species in northern Brazil: Tityus obscurus, T. metuendus, and T. silvestris. Additionally, we quantify the impact of these changes on conservation units and Indigenous territories. Our results indicate that the three species will respond differently to climate change. Tityus obscurus is projected to undergo a significant range contraction, T. silvestris will experience minimal changes, and T. metuendus will likely expand significantly into new areas. As a consequence of these shifts, T. obscurus may lose a large portion of its range within conservation units, potentially compromising the biotechnological potential of its venom. On the other hand, T. metuendus is expected to expand significantly into Indigenous territories, bringing new challenges to public health. Thus, climate change may have direct impacts on the health of the most vulnerable populations and on the conservation of species in northern Brazil, highlighting the need for strategic measures to mitigate these effects.