Spatio-temporal dynamics and drivers of cropland ecosystem services value during the past two decades in Yangtze river economic belt, China.

Introduction: Cropland ecosystem is one of the fundamental natural resources for human survival and development, serving not only as the core carrier of food production but also as an important provider of ecological services. Clarifying the spatio-temporal variation of the cropland ecosystem service value (Crop-ESV) and understanding its main drivers are critical for maintaining and regulating cropland ecosystem functions.

Methods: Thus, this study systematically assessed the Crop-ESV in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) in China and mapped it at 1 km spatial resolution from 2001 to 2020. Secondly, the Sen-MK trend analysis was used to analyze the change trend of Crop-ESV in the YREB. Finally, structural equation modeling and multi-scale geographically weighted regression were employed to analyze the influence of physical and socio-economic factors on the Crop-ESV within the YREB.

Results: Our results showed that the Crop-ESV in the YREB exhibited an increasing trend over the past two decades, from 10,674 billion yuan in 2001 to 11,564 billion yuan in 2020, representing an average annual increase of 0.94 million yuan/ha (-value < 0.05). Moreover, the Crop-ESV showed significant spatial heterogeneity, with hot spots predominantly clustered in the west, while cold spots were primarily located in the east. Terrain was identified as the primary positive driver of Crop-ESV, whereas meteorological conditions were the main negative driver.

Discussion: These findings contribute to safeguarding food security and ecological integrity in both the YREB and China, and provide a valuable reference for harmonizing development and optimizing policies within the YREB and similar regions.