Current and future habitat suitability of northern fur seals and overlap with the commercial walleye pollock fishery in the eastern Bering Sea.

Background: Understanding the abiotic and biotic drivers of species distribution is critical for climate-informed ecosystem management. We aimed to understand habitat selection of northern fur seals in the eastern Bering Sea, a declining population that is also a key predator of walleye pollock, the target species for the largest U.S. commercial fishery.

Methods: We developed species distribution models using random forest models by combining satellite telemetry data from lactating female fur seals tagged at different rookery complexes on the Pribilof Islands in the eastern Bering Sea with regional ocean model simulations. We explored how data aggregation at two spatial scales (Pribilof-wide and complex-specific) impacted model performance and predicted distributions. Spatial predictions under hindcasted (1992-2018) and projected (2050-2059) physical and biological conditions were used to identify areas of core habitat, overlap with commercial fishery catches, and potential changes in future habitat suitability.

Results: The most important environmental predictor variables across all models were bathymetry, bottom temperature, and surface temperature. The Pribilof-wide model both under- and overrepresented the importance of specific areas, while complex-specific models exhibited considerable variability in transferability performance. The majority of core habitat occurred on the continental shelf in areas that overlapped with commercial catches of walleye pollock during the "B" season (June - October), with an average of 76% of the total percentage of the catch occurring in core fur seal habitat within the foraging range of lactating females. Projections revealed that considerable changes in fur seal habitat suitability may occur in the coming decades, with complex-specific variation in the magnitude and direction of changes.

Conclusions: Our results illustrate the need to sample multiple sites whenever possible and consider spatial scale when extrapolating species distribution model output for central-place foragers, even when terrestrial sites are < 10 km apart. The high overlap between suitable fur seal habitat and commercial fishery catches of pollock, coupled with projected changes in habitat suitability, underscore the need for targeted studies investigating fisheries impacts on this declining population.