Incorporating ecosystem component interactions and indirect effects in cumulative impact assessment models.

The cumulative impact of anthropogenic pressures on coastal seas is important to consider for a strategic and sustainable management of marine ecosystems. We aim to demonstrate how, and to what extent, incorporating interactions among ecosystem components (species and habitats) and indirect effects of pressures through other ecosystem components can develop existing cumulative impact assessment (CIA) models. A Swedish case study area was selected to test a simplified version of the extended regional Symphony CIA model. Five pollution- and climate-driven pressures acting on three trophically connected ecosystem components, i.e. cod, herring and plankton species/organism groups, were used. In addition, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature to determine the impact weight scores for an advancement of the method. The results from the development of CIA models clearly indicate the importance of introducing ecosystem component interactions and indirect effects into CIA models. The total cumulative impact increased by 117 % in the test area, but even more importantly, the development of the model resulted in a spatially more detailed outcome with a greater spatial variability in the magnitude of the total cumulative impact. New areas were highlighted that are under pressure compared to the original model. Thus, the development of the model captures cumulative impacts that would otherwise be overlooked if ecosystem component interactions and indirect effects were ignored. These types of changes to CIA models are required to increase the predictive power and ecological relevance to accommodate solid holistic and ecosystem-based marine management.