Prediction of esophagogastric anastomotic leakage by nomogram combined with preoperative nutritional status and clinical factors: a retrospective study of 775 patients.

Aim: The purpose was to explore the independent risk factors for esophagogastric anastomotic leakage (EGAL) and establish a nomogram.

Methods: Patients who underwent esophagectomy were enrolled and randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. The differences between the two groups of factors were analyzed by difference analysis, and multivariate regression analysis was subsequently performed. A nomogram was established, and the feasibility of the nomogram was verified by analyzing the discrimination, calibration, and decision curves.

Results: A total of 775 patients were enrolled, including 532 in the training cohort and 223 in the validation cohort. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that age, smoking history, drinking history, nutritional indicators, and anastomotic location were independent risk factors. In terms of discrimination, in the training group, the area under the curve was 0.757 (P = 0.025). In the calibration curve, the curves and fitting lines before and after correction in the training group and the validation group were basically the same. The results of the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the chi-square value of the training cohort was 5.48 (P = 0.791). In the decision curve analysis of the training set, when the threshold probability was in the range of 5-63%, the net benefit of patients was greater than that of the two extreme curves.

Conclusion: Preoperative malnutrition is an independent risk factor for EGAL. A diagnostic model, developed on age, anastomotic location, smoking status, and drinking history, was a reliable noninvasive tool to timely predict the occurrence of AL.