Challenging Paradigms Around the Role of Colony Size, Taxa, and Environment on Bleaching Susceptibility.

Understanding how bleaching severity varies across space and among and within taxa helps predict changes in community composition due to climate change and informs conservation efforts. Photogrammetry offers a non-invasive and time effective method for quantifying attributes of thousands of coral colonies across large, environmentally diverse reef areas. This approach circumvents the limitations of traditional survey methods, where detailed tracking of individual colonies comes at the expense of large sampling areas and sample sizes. Using photogrammetry, we measured colony size and scored bleaching severity of > 5000 colonies of 13 taxa across 26 sites (> 7400 m of reef) during a mild bleaching event in the central Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in 2022. We quantified the relationship between bleaching severity and key biological and environmental factors: colony size, taxonomic identity, degree-heating weeks (DHWs), water velocity, various measures of reef structural complexity, depth, and distance to coast. Our results show that bleaching probability decreased with increasing colony size for most taxa, contradicting the current understanding of size-dependent bleaching. Counter to conventional thinking, tabular Acropora spp. presented very low levels of bleaching in 2022 despite being among the most severely bleached taxa during the bleaching event in 1998, suggesting possible adaptation in the last two decades. Our results show a high level of idiosyncrasy in environmental gradients of bleaching severity. For instance, the effect of depth on was taxon-dependent and the effect of wave velocity differed between inshore and offshore reefs. Our results challenge prevailing paradigms around the role of colony size and environment in regulating bleaching susceptibility, suggesting that refugia are not universal but instead depend on specific environment-taxonomic combinations and taxon-specific colony sizes.