Multi-scale influences on Escherichia coli concentrations in shellfish: From catchment to estuary.

Sustainability of bivalve shellfish farming relies on clean coastal waters, however, high levels of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs, e.g. Escherichia coli) in shellfish results in temporary closure of shellfish harvesting beds to protect human health, but with economic consequences for the shellfish industry. Active Management Systems which can predict FIO contamination may help reduce shellfishery closures. This study evaluated predictors of E. coli concentrations in two shellfish species, the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) and the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas), at different spatial and temporal scales, within 12 estuaries in England and Wales. We aimed to: (i) identify consistent catchment-scale or within-estuary predictors of elevated E. coli levels in shellfish, (ii) evaluate whether high river flows associated with rainfall events were a significant predictor of shellfish E. coli concentrations, and the time lag between these events and E. coli accumulation, and (iii) whether operation of Combined Sewer Overflows (CSO) is associated with higher E. coli concentrations in shellfish. A cross-catchment analysis gave a good predictive model for contamination management (R = 0.514), with positive relationships between E. coli concentrations and river flow (p = 0.001), turbidity (p = 0.002) and nitrate (p = 0.042). No effect was observed for catchment area, the number of point source discharges, or agricultural land use type. 64% of all shellfish beds showed a significant relationship between E. coli and river flow, with typical lag-times of 1-3 days. Detailed analysis of the Conwy estuary indicated that E. coli counts were consistently higher when the CSO had been active the previous week. In conclusion, we demonstrate that real-time river flow and water quality data may be used to predict potential risk of E. coli contamination in shellfish at the catchment level, however, further refinement (coupling to fine-scale hydrodynamic models) is needed to make accurate predictions for individual shellfish beds within estuaries.