Source apportionment and emission projections of heavy metals from traffic sources in India: Insights from elemental and Pb isotopic compositions.

The study investigates the sources of metals in urban road dusts using elemental concentration and Pb isotopic ratios. The elemental concentrations are also utilized to determine the present heavy metal emissions as well as projected emissions till 2045. Bayesian mixing model for source apportionment highlights the significant contributions of both exhaust and non-exhaust sources to the metal-enriched urban road dusts, with each contributing approximately 40 %. Emission analysis reveals that India's projected electric vehicle (EV) penetration may not be sufficient to suppress the metal emissions from vehicular exhausts. Further challenge is posed by high metal concentrations in the non-exhaust sources, that dominates the emission of some metals compared to exhaust sources. If the metal concentrations remain unchanged, the emission analysis predicts alarming increases in total emissions from all the exhaust and non-exhaust sources by 174 %, 176 %, 163 % and 184 % for Ni, Cu, Zn and Pb, respectively, from 2022 to 2045. Thus, it is crucial to reduce the metal concentrations in traffic emission sources and also impose better regulatory measures to improve the urban metal pollution scenario.