Protocol for Designing a Model to Predict the Likelihood of Psychosis From Electronic Health Records Using Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning.

Introduction: Rapid identification of individuals developing a psychotic spectrum disorder (PSD) is crucial because untreated psychosis is associated with poor outcomes and decreased treatment response. Lack of recognition of early psychotic symptoms often delays diagnosis, further worsening these outcomes.

Methods: The proposed study is a cross-sectional, retrospective analysis of electronic health record data including clinician documentation and patient-clinician secure messages for patients aged 15-29 years with ≥ 1 primary care encounter between 2017 and 2019 within 2 Kaiser Permanente regions. Patients with new-onset PSD will be distinguished from those without a diagnosis if they have ≥ 1 PSD diagnosis within 12 months following the primary care encounter. The prediction model will be trained using a trisourced natural language processing feature extraction design and validated both within each region separately and in a modified combined sample.

Discussion: This proposed model leverages the strengths of the large volume of patient-specific data from an integrated electronic health record with natural language processing to identify patients at elevated chance of developing a PSD. This project carries the potential to reduce the duration of untreated psychosis and thereby improve long-term patient outcomes.