Subtyping of Performance Trajectory During Medical School, Medical Internship, and the First Year of Residency in Training Physicians: A Longitudinal Cohort Study.

Background: Developmental trajectories of clinical skills in training physicians vary among tasks and show interindividual differences. This study examined the predictors of medical internship performance and residency entrance and found subtypes of performance trajectory in training physicians.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study involved 888 training physicians who completed a medical internship between 2015 and 2019. After the internship, 627 physicians applied for residency training between 2016 and 2020. Finally, 160 of them completed their first-year residency in internal medicine, surgery, pediatrics, and psychiatry departments between 2016 and 2020. Pearson's correlation coefficients of internship performance and first year-residency performance (n = 160) were calculated. Latent profile analysis identified performance trajectory subtypes according to medical school grade point average (GPA), internship performance, English proficiency, and residency selection procedures. Multivariate logistic regression models of residency acceptance (n = 627) and performance in the top 30%/lower 10% in the first year of residency were also constructed.

Results: Medical internship performance showed a significant positive correlation with the medical school GPA ( = 0.194) and the written score for the medical licensing examination ( = 0.125). Higher scores in the interview (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.57) and written examination (aOR, 1.45) of residency selection procedures and higher medical internship performance (aOR, 1.19) were associated with a higher chance of residency acceptance. The latent profile analyses identified three training physician subgroups: average performance, consistently high performance (top 30%), and adaptation to changes (lowest 10%). Higher scores in the interview for residency selection (aOR, 1.35) and lower scores for medical internship performance (aOR, 0.79) were associated with a higher chance of performing in the top 30% or lowest 10% in the first year of residency, respectively.

Conclusion: Performance in the interview and medical internship predicted being among the top 30% and lowest 10% of performers in the first year of residency training, respectively. Individualized educational programs to enhance the prospect of trainees becoming high-functioning physicians are needed.