Genetic Liability to Cardiovascular Disease, Physical Activity, and Mortality: Findings from the Finnish Twin Cohort.

Purpose: We investigated whether longitudinally assessed physical activity (PA) and adherence specifically to World Health Organization PA guidelines mitigate or moderate mortality risk regardless of genetic liability to cardiovascular disease (CVD). We also estimated the causality of the PA-mortality association.

Methods: The study used the older Finnish Twin Cohort with 4897 participants aged 33 to 60 yr (54.3% women). Genetic liability to coronary heart disease and systolic and diastolic blood pressure was estimated with polygenic risk scores (PRS) derived from the Pan-UK Biobank ( N ≈ 400,000; >1,000,000 genetic variants). Leisure-time PA was assessed with validated and structured questionnaires three times during 1975 to 1990. The main effects of adherence to PA guidelines and the PRS × PA interactions were evaluated with Cox proportional hazards models against all-cause and CVD mortality. A cotwin control design with 180 monozygotic twin pairs discordant for meeting the guidelines was used for causal inference.

Results: During the 17.4-yr (mean) follow-up (85,136 person-years), 1195 participants died, with 389 CVD deaths. PRS (per 1 SD increase) were associated with a 17% to 24% higher CVD mortality risk but not with all-cause mortality except for the PRS for diastolic blood pressure. Adherence to PA guidelines did not show significant independent main effects or interactions with all-cause or CVD mortality. Twins whose activity levels adhered to PA guidelines over a 15-yr period did not have statistically significantly reduced mortality risk compared with their less active identical twin sibling. The findings were similar among high, intermediate, and low genetic risk levels for CVD.

Conclusions: The genetically informed Finnish Twin Cohort data could not confirm that adherence to PA guidelines either mitigates or moderates genetic CVD risk or causally reduces mortality risk.