Proposal of an integrated staging system using albumin-bilirubin grade and serum alpha-fetoprotein values for predicting postoperative prognosis of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma.

Background: Because repeat hepatectomy for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma is a potentially invasive procedure, it is necessary to identify patients who truly benefit from repeat hepatectomy. Albumin-bilirubin grading has been reported to predict survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. However, as prognosis also depends on tumor factors, a staging system that adds tumor factors to albumin-bilirubin grading may lead to a more accurate prognostication in patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma.

Methods: Albumin-bilirubin grading and serum alpha-fetoprotein levels were combined and the albumin-bilirubin-alpha-fetoprotein score was created ([albumin-bilirubin grading = 1; 1 point, 2 or 3; 2 points] + [alpha-fetoprotein<75 ng/mL, 0 points; ≥5, 1 point]). Patients were classified into three groups, and their characteristics and survival were evaluated. The predictive ability of the albumin-bilirubin-alpha-fetoprotein score was compared with that of the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program and the Japan Integrated Stage scores.

Results: Albumin-bilirubin-alpha-fetoprotein score significantly stratified postoperative survival (albumin-bilirubin-alpha-fetoprotein score = 1/2/3: 5-year recurrence-free survival [%]: 22.4/20.7/0.0, p < 0.001) and showed the highest predictive value for survival among the integrated systems (albumin-bilirubin-alpha-fetoprotein score/Japan Integrated Stage/Cancer of the Liver Italian Program: 0.785/0.708/0.750).

Conclusions: Albumin-bilirubin-alpha-fetoprotein score is useful for predicting the survival of patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing repeat hepatectomy.