The Evolution of Risk Assessment in Spine Surgery: A Narrative Review.

Background: Risk assessment is critically important in elective and high-risk interventions, particularly spine surgery. This narrative review describes the evolution of risk assessment from the earliest instruments focused on general surgical risk stratification, to more accurate and spine-specific risk calculators that quantified risk, to the current era of big data.

Methods: The PubMed and SCOPUS databases were queried on October 11, 2023 using search terms to identify risk assessment tools (RATs) in spine surgery. A total of 108 manuscripts were included after screening with full-text review using the following inclusion criteria: 1) study population of adult spine surgical patients, 2) studies describing validation and subsequent performance of preoperative RATs, and 3) studies published in English.

Results: Early RATs provided stratified patients into broad categories and allowed for improved communication between physicians. Subsequent risk calculators attempted to quantify risk by estimating general outcomes such as mortality, but then evolved to estimate spine-specific surgical complications. The integration of novel concepts such as invasiveness, frailty, genetic biomarkers, and sarcopenia led to the development of more sophisticated predictive models that estimate the risk of spine-specific complications and long-term outcomes.

Conclusions: RATs have undergone a transformative shift from generalized risk stratification to quantitative predictive models. The next generation of tools will likely involve integration of radiographic and genetic biomarkers, machine learning, and artificial intelligence to improve the accuracy of these models and better inform patients, surgeons, and payers.