Individualised prediction of resilience and vulnerability to sleep loss using EEG features.

It is well established that individuals differ in their response to sleep loss. However, existing methods to predict an individual's sleep-loss phenotype are not scalable or involve effort-dependent neurobehavioural tests. To overcome these limitations, we sought to predict an individual's level of resilience or vulnerability to sleep loss using electroencephalographic (EEG) features obtained from routine night sleep. To this end, we retrospectively analysed five studies in which 96 healthy young adults (41 women) completed a laboratory baseline-sleep phase followed by a sleep-loss challenge. After classifying subjects into sleep-loss phenotypic groups, we extracted two EEG features from the first sleep cycle (median duration: 1.6 h), slow-wave activity (SWA) power and SWA rise rate, from four channels during the baseline nights. Using these data, we developed two sets of logistic regression classifiers (resilient versus not-resilient and vulnerable versus not-vulnerable) to predict the probability of sleep-loss resilience or vulnerability, respectively, and evaluated model performance using test datasets not used in model development. Consistently, the most predictive features came from the left cerebral hemisphere. For the resilient versus not-resilient classifiers, we obtained an average testing performance of 0.68 for the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.72 for accuracy, 0.50 for sensitivity, 0.84 for specificity, 0.61 for positive predictive value, and 3.59 for likelihood ratio. We obtained similar performance for the vulnerable versus not-vulnerable classifiers. These results indicate that logistic regression classifiers based on SWA power and SWA rise rate from routine night sleep can largely predict an individual's sleep-loss phenotype.