Predicting outcome in disorders of consciousness: A mega-analysis.

Objective: Assessing recovery potential in patients with disorders of consciousness (DoC) is pivotal for guiding clinical and ethical decisions. We conducted a mega-analysis of individual patient data to understand (1) if a time threshold exists, beyond which regaining consciousness is almost impossible, and (2) how recovery varies based on factors such as diagnosis, etiology, age, sex, and neuropsychological status.

Methods: A systematic literature search revealed a total of 3290 patients. In this sample, we performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis for interval censored data.

Results: We observed a late saturation of probability to regain consciousness in Kaplan-Meier curves, and the annual rate of recovery was remarkably stable, in that approximately 35% of patients regained consciousness per year. Patients in minimally conscious state (MCS) recovered more frequently than patients in unresponsive wakefulness syndrome (UWS). No significant difference was observed between the recovery dynamics of MCS subgroups: MCS+ and MCS-. Patients with hypoxic brain lesions showed worse recovery rate than patients with traumatic brain injury and patients with vascular brain lesions, while the latter two categories did not differ from each other. Male patients had moderately better chance to regain consciousness. While younger UWS patients recovered more frequently than older patients, it was not the case in MCS.

Interpretation: Our findings highlight the necessity for neurologists to exercise caution when making negative predictions in individual cases, challenge traditional beliefs regarding recovery timelines, and underscore the importance of conducting detailed and prolonged assessments to better understand recovery prospects in DoC.