Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor type 1 is an alternative marker of urinary albumin-creatinine ratio and estimated glomerular filtration rate for predicting the decline of renal function in subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Background: Urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) help predict worsening diabetic kidney disease (DKD) but have their limitations. Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor type 1 (sTNFR1) is a biomarker of DKD. The predictive abilities of sTNFR1 and UACR plus eGFR have not been compared.

Methods: This prospective cohort study included patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) to identify the risk factors of worsening DKD. Renal events were defined as > 30 % loss in eGFR based on consecutive tests after 6 months. The associations of sTNFR1, UACR, and eGFR levels and the risks of renal events were tested using a Cox regression model and the area under the curve (AUC) was compared between sTNFR1 levels and UACR plus eGFR using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The accuracy of stratification was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis.

Results: Levels of sTNFR1 and UACR were associated with risks of > 30 % decline in eGFR after adjusting for relevant factors. The association between sTNFR1 levels and renal outcomes was independent of UACR and eGFR at baseline. The AUC of sTNFR1 level was comparable with that of combined UACR and eGFR (0.73 vs. 0.71, respectively, p = 0.72) and the results persisted for quartile groups of sTNFR1 and risk categories of Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) (0.70 vs. 0.71, respectively, p = 0.84). Both stratifications by sTNFR1 levels and KDIGO were accurate.

Conclusion: sTNFR1 could be an alternative marker for identifying patients with diabetes at risk of declining renal function.