Population mortality before and during the COVID-19 epidemic in two Sudanese settings: a key informant study.

Background: Population mortality is an important metric that sums information from different public health risk factors into a single indicator of health. However, the impact of COVID-19 on population mortality in low-income and crisis-affected countries like Sudan remains difficult to measure. Using a community-led approach, we estimated excess mortality during the COVID-19 epidemic in two Sudanese communities.

Methods: Three sets of key informants in two study locations, identified by community-based research teams, were administered a standardised questionnaire to list all known decedents from January 2017 to February 2021. Based on key variables, we linked the records before analysing the data using a capture-recapture statistical technique that models the overlap among lists to estimate the true number of deaths.

Results: We estimated that deaths per day were 5.5 times higher between March 2020 and February 2021 compared to the pre-pandemic period in East Gezira, while in El Obeid City, the rate was 1.6 times higher.

Conclusion: This study suggests that using a community-led capture-recapture methodology to measure excess mortality is a feasible approach in Sudan and similar settings. Deploying similar community-led estimation methodologies should be considered wherever crises and weak health infrastructure prevent an accurate and timely real-time understanding of epidemics' mortality impact in real-time.