Using sentinel nodes to evaluate changing connectivity in a protected area network.

It has been recognized that well-connected networks of protected areas are needed to halt the continued loss of global biodiversity. The recently signed Kunming-Montreal biodiversity agreement commits countries to protecting 30% of terrestrial lands in well-connected networks of protected areas by 2030. To meet these ambitious targets, land-use planners and conservation practitioners will require tools to identify areas important for connectivity and track future changes. In this study we present methods using circuit theoretic models with a subset of sentinel park nodes to evaluate connectivity for a protected areas network. We assigned a lower cost to natural areas within protected areas, under the assumption that animal movement within parks should be less costly given the regulation of activities. We found that by using mean pairwise effective resistance (MPER) as an indicator of overall network connectivity, we were able to detect changes in a parks network in response to simulated land-use changes. As expected, MPER increased with the addition of high-cost developments and decreased with the addition of new, low-cost protected areas. We tested our sentinel node method by evaluating connectivity for the protected area network in the province of Ontario, Canada. We also calculated a node isolation index, which highlighted differences in protected area connectivity between the north and the south of the province. Our method can help provide protected areas ecologists and planners with baseline estimates of connectivity for a given protected area network and an indicator that can be used to track changes in connectivity in the future.