Increasing Incidence and Decreasing Mortality of Melanoma in Elderly Adults: An Epidemiologic Study in Olmsted County, Minnesota.

Background And Objective: Primary cutaneous melanoma incidence is increasing in elderly individuals. This population-based cohort examines incidence and mortality rates among adults aged 61 years and older with cutaneous melanoma.

Materials And Methods: Using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, patients aged 61 years of age or older with a first lifetime diagnosis of cutaneous melanoma between January 1, 1970 and December 31, 2020 were identified.

Results: The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate increased from 16.4 (95% CI, 8.2-24.6) per 100,000 person-years in 1970 to 1979 to 201.5 (95% CI, 185.1-217.8) per 100,000 person-years in 2011 to 2020 (12.3-fold increase). There was a 16.0x increase in males and an 8.5× increase in females. Melanoma incidence has stabilized in males (1.2-fold increase, p = .11) and continues to significantly increase in females (2.7-fold increase, p < .001). Older age at diagnosis was significantly associated with an increased risk of death (HR 1.23 per 5-year increase in age at diagnosis, 95% CI, 1.02-1.47).

Conclusion: Melanoma incidence continues to increase since 1970. The incidence has risen in elderly females, but has stabilized in males. Mortality has decreased throughout this period.