Describing a complex primary health care population to support future decision support initiatives.

Introduction: Developing decision support tools using data from a health care organization, to support care within that organization, is a promising paradigm to improve care delivery and population health. Descriptive epidemiology may be a valuable supplement to stakeholder input towards selection of potential initiatives and to inform methodological decisions throughout tool development. We additionally propose that to properly characterize complex populations in large-scale descriptive studies, both simple statistical and machine learning techniques can be useful.

Objective: To describe sociodemographic, clinical, and health care use characteristics of primary care clients served by the Alliance for Healthier Communities, which provides team-based primary health care through Community Health Centres (CHCs) across Ontario, Canada.

Methods: We used electronic health record data from adult ongoing primary care clients served by CHCs in 2009-2019. We performed traditional table-based summaries for each characteristic; and applied three unsupervised learning techniques to explore patterns of common condition co-occurrence, care provider teams, and care frequency.

Results: There were 221,047 eligible clients. Sociodemographics: We described 13 characteristics, stratified by CHC type and client multimorbidity status. Clinical characteristics: Eleven-year prevalence of 24 investigated conditions ranged from 1% (Hepatitis C) to 63% (chronic musculoskeletal problem) with non-uniform risk across the care history; multimorbidity was common (81%) with variable co-occurrence patterns. Health care use characteristics: Most care was provided by physician and nursing providers, with heterogeneous combinations of other provider types. A subset of clients had many issues addressed within single-visits and there was within- and between-client variability in care frequency. In addition to substantive findings, we discuss methodological considerations for future decision support initiatives.

Conclusions: We demonstrated the use of methods from statistics and machine learning, applied with an epidemiological lens, to provide an overview of a complex primary care population and lay a foundation for stakeholder engagement and decision support tool development.