An intelligent composite model incorporating global / regional X-rays and clinical parameters to predict progressive adolescent idiopathic scoliosis curvatures and facilitate population screening.

Background: Adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) affects up to 5% of the population. The efficacy of school-aged screening remains controversial since it is uncertain which curvatures will progress following diagnosis and require treatment. Patient demographics, vertebral morphology, skeletal maturity, and bone quality represent individual risk factors for progression but have yet to be integrated towards accurate prognostication. The objective of this work was to develop composite machine learning-based prediction model to accurately predict AIS curves at-risk of progression.

Methods: 1870 AIS patients with remaining growth potential were identified. Curve progression was defined by a Cobb angle increase in the major curve of ≥6° between first visit and skeletal maturity in curves that exceeded 25°. Separate prediction modules were developed for i) clinical data, ii) global/regional spine X-rays, and iii) hand X-rays. The hand X-ray module performed automated image classification and segmentation tasks towards estimation of skeletal maturity and bone mineral density. A late fusion strategy integrated these domains towards the prediction of progressive curves at first clinic visit.

Findings: Composite model performance was assessed on a validation cohort and achieved an accuracy of 83.2% (79.3-83.6%, 95% confidence interval), sensitivity of 80.9% (78.2-81.9%), specificity of 83.6% (78.8-84.1%) and an AUC of 0.84 (0.81-0.85), outperforming single modality prediction models (AUC 0.65-0.78).

Interpretation: The composite prediction model achieved a high degree of accuracy. Upon incorporation into school-aged screening programs, patients at-risk of progression may be prioritized to receive urgent specialist attention, more frequent follow-up, and pre-emptive treatment.

Funding: Funding from The Society for the Relief of Disabled Children was awarded to GKHS.