Predicting the likelihood of live birth: an objective and user-friendly blastocyst grading system.

Research Question: Can day-5 blastocysts be ranked according to their likelihood of live birth using an objective and user-friendly grading system?

Design: A retrospective multicentre study conducted between 2017 and 2019, including 1044 day-5 blastocysts. Blastocyst expansion degree, trophectoderm and inner cell mass quality were assessed morphologically and morphometrically. Several analyses were conducted: the association between the qualitative and quantitative assessment for the blastocyst expansion degree and the number of trophectoderm cells; the effect of the embryo quality on day 3 and the contribution of the three blastocyst parameters to live birth, with logistic regression; and a decision tree with the most significant variables to create the new scoring system.

Results: Cut-off points were found to discriminate between expanding and expanded blastocysts (165 µm for blastocyst diameter) and between trophectoderm grades (A: ≥14 cells; B: 11-13 cells; C: ≤10 cells). When the embryos reached the blastocyst stage, their quality on day 3 did not add predictive value for implantation and live birth. In the logistic regression analysis, the only parameter capable of significantly predicting the live birth likelihood was the trophectoderm grade: A versus C (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.26 to 3.0); B versus C (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.22 to 2.4). The decision tree supported the finding that the trophectoderm grade had the highest predictive value for a live birth, followed by the blastocyst expansion degree in a second step.

Conclusions: This new method makes objective blastocyst assessment feasible, allowing for standardization and exportation to other laboratories worldwide.