Development and validation of a deep learning radiomics nomogram for preoperatively differentiating thymic epithelial tumor histologic subtypes.

Objectives: Using contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) and deep learning technology to develop a deep learning radiomics nomogram (DLRN) to preoperative predict risk status of patients with thymic epithelial tumors (TETs).

Methods: Between October 2008 and May 2020, 257 consecutive patients with surgically and pathologically confirmed TETs were enrolled from three medical centers. We extracted deep learning features from all lesions using a transformer-based convolutional neural network and created a deep learning signature (DLS) using selector operator regression and least absolute shrinkage. The predictive capability of a DLRN incorporating clinical characteristics, subjective CT findings and DLS was evaluated by the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic curve.

Results: To construct a DLS, 25 deep learning features with non-zero coefficients were selected from 116 low-risk TETs (subtypes A, AB, and B1) and 141 high-risk TETs (subtypes B2, B3, and C). The combination of subjective CT features such as infiltration and DLS demonstrated the best performance in differentiating TETs risk status. The AUCs in the training, internal validation, external validation 1 and 2 cohorts were 0.959 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.924-0.993), 0.868 (95% CI: 0.765-0.970), 0.846 (95% CI: 0.750-0.942), and 0.846 (95% CI: 0.735-0.957), respectively. The DeLong test and decision in curve analysis revealed that the DLRN was the most predictive and clinically useful model.

Conclusions: The DLRN comprised of CECT-derived DLS and subjective CT findings showed a high performance in predicting risk status of patients with TETs.

Clinical Relevance Statement: Accurate risk status assessment of thymic epithelial tumors (TETs) may aid in determining whether preoperative neoadjuvant treatment is necessary. A deep learning radiomics nomogram incorporating enhancement CT-based deep learning features, clinical characteristics, and subjective CT findings has the potential to predict the histologic subtypes of TETs, which can facilitate decision-making and personalized therapy in clinical practice.

Key Points: • A non-invasive diagnostic method that can predict the pathological risk status may be useful for pretreatment stratification and prognostic evaluation in TET patients. • DLRN demonstrated superior performance in differentiating the risk status of TETs when compared to the deep learning signature, radiomics signature, or clinical model. • The DeLong test and decision in curve analysis revealed that the DLRN was the most predictive and clinically useful in differentiating the risk status of TETs.