Comparison of cardiovascular event predictability between the 2009 and 2021 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equations in a Korean chronic kidney disease cohort: the KoreaN Cohort Study for Outcome in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease.

Background: The 2009 Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcr) equation contains a race component that is not based on biology and may cause a bias in results. Therefore, the 2021 eGFRcr and creatinine-cystatin C-based eGFR (eGFRcr-cysC) equations were developed with no consideration of race. This study compared the cardiovascular event (CVE) and all-cause mortality and CVE combined predictability among the three eGFR equations in Korean chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients.

Methods: This study included 2,207 patients from the KoreaN Cohort Study for Outcome in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and net reclassification improvement (NRI) index were used to compare the predictability of the study outcomes according to the 2009 eGFRcr, 2021 eGFRcr, and 2021 eGFRcr-cysC equations.

Results: The overall prevalence of CVE and all-cause mortality were 9% and 7%, respectively. There was no difference in area under the curve of ROC for CVE and mortality and CVE combined among all three equations. Compared to the 2009 eGFRcr, both the 2021 eGFRcr (NRI, 0.013; 95% confidence interval [CI], - 0.002 to 0.028) and the eGFRcr-cysC (NRI, -0.001; 95% CI, -0.031 to 0.029) equations did not show improved CVE predictability. Similar findings were observed for mortality and CVE combined predictability with both the 2021 eGFRcr (NRI, -0.019; 95% CI, -0.039-0.000) and the eGFRcr-cysC (NRI, -0.002; 95% CI, -0.023 to 0.018).

Conclusion: The 2009 eGFRcr equation was not inferior to either the 2021 eGFRcr or eGFRcr-cysC equation in predicting CVE and the composite of mortality and CVE in Korean CKD patients.